LOS ANGELES — For the Denver Broncos and Bo Nix, the journey begins in the Emerald City – unlike in the “Wizard of Oz,” where the green towers marked the end of the journey along the yellow brick road.

Long-term development remains a priority. But along the way, the Broncos want to win as much as possible. And wins can build confidence, which in turn can increase the chances of maximizing Nix’s first contract window – which opens as soon as he walks through the tunnel at Lumen Field.

At the NFL Scouting Combine in February, Sean Payton spoke confidently about how the Broncos’ evaluation could help them avoid the mistakes teams make when selecting quarterbacks. With that in mind, I asked Payton on Friday about his methodology and how he thinks it could help Nix avoid some of the potholes that befall young quarterbacks.

“That’s a great question,” Payton replied.

And he immediately remembered a conversation he had had shortly before with quarterback coach David Webb and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. The topic? Not teaching concepts he was familiar with.

“It’s important, especially early in the season, to focus on what he really feels comfortable with,” Payton said.

And that includes providing structures that help.

“When I tell the players, ‘Man, we have to play fast,’ then as coaches we have to give them the menu that allows them to do that,” Payton said. “Too much can lead to hesitation about what exactly we’re doing.”

And that’s the problem. The Broncos can do a lot of things. But with a rookie quarterback, they may not be able to do everything.

“I think there’s this balance, all week, last night, the night before, about how much (is too much) with a younger quarterback,” Payton said.

Of course, the supply was limited last year too — and that was with a 12-year veteran. The middle of the field was largely unavailable. Watching Nix this summer, that problem has disappeared. Still, anything the Broncos can do to help Nix can help.

And that brought Payton back to a point he made when I asked him in April how to help a young quarterback.

“I go back to the two really good allies, our good defense and our good running game,” he said. “If those two have problems, that puts a lot more pressure on that player.”

And most rookie quarterbacks who fail early don’t have that kind of support. Whether the Broncos have enough of it remains to be seen.

Sean Payton asked how the Broncos’ quarterback methodology could help Bo Nix avoid some of the pitfalls your quarterbacks face.

An important point: “It is important that we focus on the things that he really feels comfortable with, especially at the beginning of the season.” pic.twitter.com/niuuWgoyUT

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) 7 September 2024

The Broncos need to change, because the trends heading into this weekend are not favorable – at least as far as the micro-result of the first game goes for a quarterback thrown in at the deep end.

8

Consecutive losing games by teams with a first-round rookie quarterback making his debut in the starting lineup, starting with Joe Burrow with the Cincinnati Bengals at the beginning of the 2020 season. This includes Justin Herbert’s Week 2 start in 2020, so the losing streak in this scenario is seven games for Week 1 purposes only.

No. 16-33-1

The record for teams since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 to start a rookie quarterback in their first regular season game.

These teams have seven straight losses and a record of 0-7-1 since Sam Darnold and the New York Jets crushed Detroit 48-17 to start the 2018 season. Darnold’s success was aided by five turnovers, a defensive touchdown and another on a punt return. Such an outcome would be great for the Broncos on Sunday, but it’s not a reasonable expectation; in the last five years, only one team – Las Vegas against the Chargers last December – has had two return touchdowns and five turnovers in the same game.

Since 2018, teams with rookie starting quarterbacks are 6-18-1 in Week 1. There is no real home-field advantage here; the record is 4-9 on the road and 2-9-1 at home.

32

Historically, this is the number of pass attempts you’d rather not have with a rookie starting quarterback in Week 1.

Since the AFL-NFL merger, teams whose rookie has reached 32 attempts in Week 1 are 2-20-1, while teams whose quarterback has reached 31 or fewer attempts are 14-13. The two exceptions in the win column were Carson Wentz in 2016 with the Philadelphia Eagles (37 attempts) and Geno Smith in 2013 with the New York Jets (38 attempts).

This fits right in with what Payton said about the running game and defense. Getting to cruising altitude in both areas ensures the Broncos can stick to their game plan and not get thrown off balance in a furious attempt to catch up.

Another important number is the average per attempt. Teams that have started with rookie quarterbacks since the merger have a 9-2 record when those quarterbacks average at least 7.5 yards per attempt. One of the passers who managed to do that was Archie Manning with New Orleans in 1971.

BUT WITH THE BRONCOS HAVING A STARTING QB IN WEEK 1, REMEMBER…

Don’t fall into the trap of putting too much stock in the first start, either. Nine rookie quarterbacks since the merger posted a passer rating of at least 100.0 in their Week 1 start, and the eventual results were mixed.

Marcus Mariota had a perfect passer rating in his Week 1 debut in 2015; he’s established himself as a long-term backup. Robert Griffin III shredded the Saints in 2012, posting a 139.9 passer rating; however, injuries quickly faded him. And the other names on that list are Matt Ryan, Sam Darnold, Cam Newton, EJ Manuel, Mac Jones, Andy Dalton and Carson Wentz. Only Ryan and Newton have been successful long-term.

This is a start, nothing more. The defense will adjust. So will Nix and the Broncos’ coaches.