NFL 2-0 teams ranked by legitimacy: Who's a real contender?

Not all 2-0 starts in the NFL are the same.

Of course, going undefeated through the first two weeks of a season is a cause for celebration for any organization. Since 1990, teams that started 2-0 have made the playoffs 63.9% of the time.

But because schedule and other factors weigh so heavily on such a small sample size, some teams that start out so strong are bound to slow down or stumble. While six of the nine teams that reached 2-0 last season made the playoffs, several proved not to be long-term fit.

With that in mind, here’s USA TODAY Sports’ ranking of this year’s nine 2-0 teams based on their contender criteria, with franchises divided into three tiers.

Legitimate competitors

1. Kansas City Chiefs

If the Chiefs hadn’t run a few plays better in the fourth quarter, they could easily be down 2-0 and causing panic for their third straight Super Bowl. Call it luck or championship courage — or a combination of both — but Kansas City is 2-0 again for the fifth time in seven seasons with Patrick Mahomes as its starting quarterback. Given Marquise “Hollywood” Brown’s long-term shoulder injury and the substitution of rookie left tackle Kingsley Suamataia on Sunday, expectations of a far more explosive offense may have been premature. But this is still the team everyone is following, and there’s reason to believe significant improvement is within reach, especially with Travis Kelce barely being included in the passing attack thus far. With Mahomes still capable of providing a spark in a split second and Steve Spagnuolo’s defense continuing to deliver in key situations, Kansas City’s margin for error seems as wide as ever.

2. Buffalo Bills

An offseason of roster shake-ups has only led to further personnel setbacks for Buffalo, with linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard and cornerback Taron Johnson out with injuries. But the Bills have not given up yet. Joe Brady has established himself as one of the NFL’s most adaptable offensive players, and Josh Allen and Co. have shown plenty of ways to exploit the defense despite the reshuffle of the receiver group. Sean McDermott will have to show at some point that he can handle the setbacks that could make the difference against the AFC’s elite. For now, though, the Bills are one of the few teams that can stand up to the Chiefs – or any other top contender – at their best.

3. Houston Texans

The Texans are tied with the Chiefs for the lowest point differential (+8) of any undefeated team, but haven’t exactly mowed down their first two opponents. The defense was able to hold its own against Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams, who combined to start six games. But Houston has the talent to be a title contender, and reigning NFL Coach of the Year DeMeco Ryans continues to put his team in position to win. Continued improvement in the running game could put the team on top, as Joe Mixon looked rejuvenated in his 159-yard performance in Week 1, but then suffered an ankle injury against the Chicago Bears. With the AFC South not nearly as competitive as it seemed, the Texans could walk away with another division title and contend for a very favorable seed.

Almost there

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Maybe it’s time to stop expecting a downturn for the three-time defending NFC South champions, who are coming off their fourth straight 2-0 start. The first two games were a recognized powerhouse with Tom Brady at center. But Baker Mayfield and Todd Bowles have fended off any impression of regression, and their 20-16 win Sunday over the Detroit Lions was a reminder that Tampa Bay is among the conference’s best. The resurgence of Chris Godwin is a huge boon for the offense, while Bowles’ group continues to look good at key positions. A stagnant running game and lack of firepower in the pass rush remain potential long-term limitations, but the Buccaneers’ skills are clearly on display.

5. New Orleans Saints

While the Saints have been lambasted for continuing to rely on a roster that has produced mediocre results in recent years, the franchise may be responsible for the most consequential move of the offseason. The hiring of offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak sparked something few could have seen coming in a veteran-heavy offense, as New Orleans’ 91 points after the first two games are the fourth-most in league history. It must be noted, however, that the scoring outbursts came against the helpless Carolina Panthers and a Dallas Cowboys defense playing in its second game with a new system. Still, the unbridled use of movement and plays has done wonders for both Derek Carr, who looks much more confident after a rocky debut season in the Big Easy, and Alvin Kamara, the five-time Pro Bowler who leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage (290) after averaging just 3.9 yards per carry last season. If the Saints can overcome a brutal four-game streak (vs. Eagles, at Falcons, at Chiefs, vs. Buccaneers), they can move up a notch. For now, however, any prediction of a Super Bowl at home is out of the question.

More to prove

6. Minnesota Vikings

It’s understandable that the focus has been on Sam Darnold during the Vikings’ stellar start, because it’s not often that a former top-five pick reminds his promise on his fourth team (Mayfield was the pioneer here, of course). But there’s little doubt that defensive coordinator Brian Flores deserves more credit. As San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy put it to Flores after Minnesota allowed him six sacks and two turnovers in a 23-17 win on Sunday: “Your scheme is insane.” While Flores should be able to shake up opposing offenses all season, Darnold has yet to prove he can be a consistent triggerman and do more than let Justin Jefferson be Justin Jefferson. But if Kevin O’Connell can continue to put him in favorable situations — and the mounting injuries to his pass receivers aren’t felt too much — Minnesota could still be in the wild-card race late in the season.

7. Los Angeles Chargers

With more rushing yards (395) than passing yards (270), Jim Harbaugh’s team has already established an NFL counterculture. But the method used to wear down the Raiders and Panthers almost certainly won’t be as easy to replicate against teams like the Steelers and Chiefs, who play over the next two weeks. The Bolts’ dominant defensive performance is inextricably linked to the faltering passing attacks they’ve faced, and an underdeveloped receiver corps threatens to become a stumbling block if conditions are less favorable early in the game. But even if the group can’t quite keep up with the competition, the schedule is loose enough that the Chargers could be a gritty version of last year’s Dolphins, overpowering the league’s subpar-to-average teams and staying relevant in the postseason.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers

It’s fitting that the Steelers face the Chargers on Sunday, as the two teams have a lot in common. Like the Los Angeles group, Pittsburgh’s defense has stifled its overmatched opponents, but the unit needs a bigger test. And the Steelers haven’t had to ask much of their passing game with Justin Fields filling in for Russell Wilson. Although Mike Tomlin has proven adept at dealing with roster deficiencies that would trip up weaker coaches, that formula doesn’t seem sustainable long-term, as neither Fields nor Wilson seem able to rescue the offense like Herbert did. A league-best +5 turnover differential was key to Pittsburgh’s early success. Perhaps the defense can continue to generate big plays, but the offense could face bigger holes if the team holds on to Fields, who had 41 turnovers in 40 games with the Chicago Bears and took 135 sacks during that same span.

9. Seattle Seahawks

Mike Macdonald, the NFL’s youngest coach at 37, has credit for getting off to a flawless start – something no other coach in franchise history has accomplished in his first year. But Seattle has had no easier openings than against the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots, as both franchises have had to make major roster changes. Macdonald’s complex scheme will likely cause problems for opponents all season, and Geno Smith appears to have a firm grasp on new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb’s offense. But an offensive line that ranks just 31st in both pass block win rate (38%) and run block win rate (65%), according to ESPN, remains a major weakness, especially on the interior. The Seahawks could be far more competitive than many predicted, but a regression seems inevitable once competition heats up.

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