A rematch of the NFC Wildcard Round is the final game of NFL Week 1 on Sunday, when the Los Angeles Rams head to Ford Field to face the Detroit Lions (-4.5, 52.5) on Sunday Night Football.
The Lions (+1000) enter Week 1 as one of the most bet teams to win the Super Bowl at ESPN BET. The Rams currently have Super Bowl odds of 30/1 and NFC West odds of +350.
With two of the NFL’s strongest offensive lines and a host of superstars from Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta to Puka Nucua and Cooper Kupp, Sunday night’s game appears to be a great opportunity for bettors to capitalize.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock.
Odds current at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET
Game lines
Spread: Lions (-4.5)
Money line: Lions (-415), Rams (+180)
Over/Under: 52.5
Distribution of the first half: Lions -3.5 (+102), Rams +3.5 (-125)
Rams total points: Over 21.5 -150/Under 21.5 +120
Lions total points: Over 27.5 -140/Under 27.5 +110
The props
Passing by
Jared Goff’s total passing yards: 274.5 Yards (Over (Straight)/Under -130)
Matthew Stafford’s total passing yards: 274.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Rush
Total rushing yards by Kyren Williams: 59.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Total rushing yards by David Montgomery: 59.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Jahmyr Gibbs – Total Rushing Yards: 59.5 (Over +115/Under -145)
Blake Corum’s total rushing yards: 24.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Reception
Amon-Ra St. Brown – Total Receiving Yards: 89.5 (Over (Even)/Under -130)
Puka Nacua total receiving yards: 69.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Cooper Kupp: Total Receiving Yards: 69.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Sam LaPorta total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
Total receiving yards by Jameson Williams: 39.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Demarcus Robinson: Total Receiving Yards: 29.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Colby Parkinson – Total receiving yards: 24.5 (Over -130/Under (Even)
Jahmyr Gibbs – Total Yards Receiving: 19.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Kalif Raymond: Total Receiving Yards: 19.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Favorite selection
Choose: Blake Corum over 24.5 rushing yards.
Kyren Williams was great last season for a Rams team that averaged 27.4 rushing attempts per game, Sean McVay has a history of taking a committee approach, and the offense struggled when Williams was out last season, so Los Angeles drafted Corum to ease Williams’ load. Corum had 505 rushing attempts in his final two seasons at Michigan, proving he can handle a heavy load. He did not play in the preseason, which likely means the Rams were saving him for a key role. Additionally, McVay mentioned that Williams will return punts, another sign that Corum will be around. The Rams’ offensive line is one of the heaviest and highest-paid units, ranking 12th in run block win rate. — Eric Moody
Choose: Matthew Stafford, 275+ passing yards (-115)
Stafford has a good matchup with his old team in his former home stadium in what is expected to be a track and field contest. According to ESPNBET, the Lions and Rams combined for by far the best point total of the day at 52.5 points, so expect the ball to be moving all game long. The Lions have one of the league’s strongest offenses, so Stafford and the Rams will likely have to move the ball through the air to keep up. The Lions’ run defense is stronger than their pass defense, and the Rams enter this game with wideouts Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp and tight end Colby Parkinson expected to be strong matchups. Stafford and Nacua trounced the Lions in their playoff matchup in January, with 181 of Stafford’s 367 passing yards going to Nacua. Stafford started and finished last season with a bang. He threw for 275 yards in three of his first four games and five of his last six (including the playoffs), and I expect him to start this season with similar energy and a strong performance against his former team. — Andre Snellings
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information
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The Lions were 12-5 ATS last season, tied with the Las Vegas Raiders for the best record in the NFL (14-6 ATS including playoffs). The Lions have finished among the top three teams against the spread in all three seasons under Dan Campbell. Campbell is 39-24 ATS (.619) as a head coach, the best mark of any head coach early in their career in the Super Bowl era (minimum three seasons). As the Lions’ head coach, he is 35-16 ATS (.686).
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The Lions are 3-0 ATS in Week 1 under Campbell (8-2 ATS in September). The Rams are 6-1 ATS in Week 1 under Sean McVay (13-7-3 ATS in September).
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The Rams are 15-9-3 ATS as at least a 3-point underdog under McVay, including the playoffs (5-2-3 ATS with Matthew Stafford).
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Twelve of the Lions’ last 13 Week 1 games have been over the total (last year it was under).
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The Lions’ games ended 11-6 over last season, giving them the highest over percentage along with the Cleveland Browns and the Indianapolis Colts.
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Primetime unders are 70-42-1 over the past two seasons (35-23 last season). Sunday night games are 26-10 over that span (13-5 each of the past two seasons).
