Week 3 begins on Thursday evening with the New England Patriots (1:1) visiting the New York Jets (1:1) at MetLife Stadium.
The Patriots enter the game as 6-point underdogs, but are one of eight teams that are 2-0 ATS this season (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears). After a surprise road win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1, New England fell at home to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Jets bounced back from a lackluster loss to the San Francisco 49ers in their season opener against the Tennessee Titans to even their record. Thursday night is their first home game of the season.
The Jets have a 2-1 chance to win the AFC East, but trail the Buffalo Bills (-135), and the Patriots have slim chances at 30-1.
Odds current at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET
Game lines
Spread: Nozzles -6
Money line: Patriots (+220), Jets (-270)
Over/Under: 38.5
Distribution of the first half: Jets -3.5 (-105), Patriots +3.5 (-125)
Patriots total points: 16.5 (Over/Under -130)
Jets total points: 22.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
The props
Passing by
Aaron Rodgers total passing yards: 224.5 (Over +120/Under -155)
Rodgers total passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +125/Under -160)
Jacoby Brissett’s total passing yards: 174.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
Brissett’s total passing touchdowns: 0.5 (Over -160/Under +125)
Rush
Breece Hall’s total rushing yards: 59.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
Rhamondre Stevenson: Total Rushing Yards: 69.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
Reception
Garrett Wilson – Total receiving yards: 69.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Hall’s total receiving yards: 29.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Hunter Henry’s total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Stevenson’s total receiving yards: 14.5 (Over -130/Under even)
Allen Lazard – Total Receiving Yards: 34.5 (Over/Under -130)
Seth Walder’s Tips
Jets DT Quinnen Williams under 0.5 sacks (-180): This is a pick where you should close your eyes and forget you made this bet until the end of the game, because Williams is a good player and the Patriots offensive line counts last in the NFL in pass block win rate after two weeks.
Still, Jacoby Brissett has a slightly above-average sack rate of 6.6%—and that’s more important than the leaky offensive line when you consider how much quarterbacks control their sack rates.
Also, it’s important to note that Williams’ opportunities will be limited because the Patriots simply don’t pass that much: They have the 28th-highest projected pass percentage (and the 29th-highest if we only consider situations where the win probability was between 15% and 85%). Also, the sack projections for defensive tackles are just generally lower. My model gives a fair price of -220 here.
Patriots WR DeMario Douglas 40+ Receiving Yards (+250): Wide receivers have to earn targets, and so the frequency with which a receiver gets the ball thrown to him is an indication of his skill level. Since the start of last season, Douglas ranks 38th out of 79 qualified wide receivers with a target rate of 23%. Although his target rate has dropped sharply in two games this season (10%), the snap counts have been consistent with last season, and I’m betting the targets will go up again as well.
Douglas had a regular over/under receiving line (essentially a projected median) of over 40 six times last season. Now we’re getting +250 on that number, and that’s what this bet is all about – value and price. My alternate receiving line model, which also estimates his value at 30+ and 35+ receiving yards, just a little less, rates this one at +147.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
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Underdogs with at least 6 points are 8-0 ATS this season, the best record after two weeks since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. The last time underdogs with 6+ points were undefeated ATS after two weeks was 1969 (9-0-1 ATS). They are 4-4 overall.
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The Jets have not been favorites against the Patriots by at least 6 points since 2000.
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The Patriots have been favorites in 24 consecutive meetings, the longest active head-to-head series in the NFL.
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Coaches are 9-26 ATS in their first 10 career games with three days rest since 2013.
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The Patriots are 6-1 ATS/SU in their last seven meetings and 15-1 SU (11-5 ATS) in their last 16 meetings. The Patriots have won eight straight road meetings (5-3 ATS), including five of their last six road games.
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This is the Jets’ second-biggest favorite in the last six seasons (-7.5 against the Bears in 2022, win 31-10).
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The Patriots have played six straight games as underdogs. They have also played four straight road games.
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The last four encounters between these teams remained below the total points.
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The Jets are 1-6 ATS (3-4 overall) in their last seven games as favorites.
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The Patriots are 2-0 ATS. They are seeking their first 3-0 ATS start since 2016.
