Tips, predictions and best bets for Sunday’s games in the first week of the NFL
Lorenzo is back to bring you his favorite bets for each week of the NFL season. See what his favorite picks are for Sunday’s games.
The power of the peacock logo extends from Paris to São Paulo.
NBCUniversal will increase its influence on American sports viewers during the first weekend of the 2024 NFL regular season, with three games in four nights on its networks, including its streaming arm Peacock.
“They’re using sports as a central part of their identity for Peacock,” media analyst John Kosner told USA TODAY Sports.
After the season opener between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens on NBC, the Brazilian duel between the Green Bay Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles will be broadcast exclusively on Peacock. The weekend ends with the duel between the Los Angeles Rams and the Detroit Lions on NBC on “Sunday Night Football”.
“So I think they can keep the momentum going,” Kosner said, “and that’s probably part of the plan for the NFL.”
What the return on investment is for Peacock and other streamers remains unclear, according to fellow streaming analyst Dan Rayburn, who believes the NFL’s motivations are detrimental to the average fan who wants to enjoy the games in peace.
“From a sports league perspective, the NFL is more fragmented than any other league, and the reason for that is obviously money,” Rayburn told USA TODAY Sports. “That’s all.”
Peacock paid $110 million for last season’s wild-card playoff game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins. This year, the exclusive postseason streaming slot was awarded to Prime Video for $120 million. Netflix paid $150 million for two Christmas Day games, which fall on a Wednesday this year.
“The NFL is the most popular television content in our country, so it is clearly worth the investment,” Kosner said.
According to Nielsen, the NFL accounted for 93 of the 100 highest-rated broadcasts in the US last year. Of the major streaming companies in the US, only Apple currently does not own NFL rights; Netflix and Amazon have been acquired, while Disney, Paramount and NBCUniversal operate streaming services as part of their conglomerates.
A popular argument for the NFL in favor of moving to streaming is that the medium appeals to a younger audience. Aside from Amazon and Nielsen for Thursday Night Football, companies rarely release statistics on demographics.
“Fifteen-year-olds don’t have money,” Rayburn said.
Another argument the league makes for streaming-only games is that the games are available on traditional network television in the local market. This strategy ignores the fan who cheered for a team as a kid and moved to another market but doesn’t want to pay to watch their team.
“The NFL doesn’t care about the fans. The NFL wants to make as much money as possible,” Rayburn said. “And hey, there’s nothing wrong with that because you’re a sports league and your job is to get paid for your content. But at some point you have to realize that fans are only willing to jump through so many hoops to get what they want from a sports perspective.”
Beware of emigration?
During the Olympics, every event was streamed live on Peacock. NBC created “Gold Zone,” a play on the NFL’s famous “RedZone” format, for simultaneous events and even hired Scott Hanson to host the show.
Peacock reported a loss of 500,000 subscribers in the second fiscal quarter of 2024, with any gains during the Olympics. Matt Strauss, chairman of NBCU’s direct-to-consumer division, which oversees Peacock, told Rayburn the company doesn’t view its streamer as a quarterly business.
“This is a long-term strategy where Peacock is part of a larger video strategy for them,” Rayburn said.
“If they lose half of that next quarter, who cares?” he added.
Still, churn is a problem, which is why companies like Peacock want content year-round, Kosner said. That’s why NBCU invested in the recent NBA media rights deal. People need reasons to keep their subscriptions. Sports interests tend to last a long time.
Although companies like Antenna claim to closely track streaming service sign-ups and other consumer data, Rayburn said there is no evidence of long-term success in sign-ups. Antenna claimed that Peacock had 3 million sign-ups through the day of the wildcard game — more than it had in the first week of the Olympics, according to IndieWire.
Companies rarely release data on streaming data, other than how it contributes to the overall number. Mobile viewership numbers are rarely disclosed. Average viewing time is never mentioned in viewership press releases and no distinction is made between individual viewership numbers. Technical issues are also ignored.
“We have absolutely no business metrics to measure what impact licensing NFL content has on these streaming services,” Rayburn said. “We know what impact the NFL has. They make a lot of money.”
Executives say things like “very pleased” or that viewership “exceeded expectations,” Rayburn said. Kosner noted that Peacock employees are hyping the company’s subscriber count and viewership of last year’s playoff game. There will be more promotion of the streaming in the near future, Kosner added.
That’s not good enough for Rayburn.
“Give me numbers,” he said.
Review reminders
Thanks to a certain Taylor Swift mania, the Chiefs’ playoff game against the Dolphins averaged 23 million viewers, making it the most live-streamed event in U.S. history.
Don’t expect any record figures this time.
First, this is Week 1, not the postseason. Kosner said the Packers and Eagles are both top-10 ratings players in the league, but he didn’t want to speculate on potential viewership numbers because there are many outside factors that could affect the ability to see this game.
The Friday after Labor Day is still technically considered “Summer Friday.” High school football games are taking place in many parts of the country. And much of Europe will still be asleep after the 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff.
