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NL East Check-in: Phillies’ magic number is five; Braves, Mets struggle


NL East Check-in: Phillies’ magic number is five; Braves, Mets struggle

Every day, Pinstripe Alley provides updates on what the Yankees‘ Top opponents of the American League are up to Rivalry Summary. The AL East is well-trodden ground there, but as the race for the championship heats up in mid-September, we’ll take a look at the MLB as a whole and look at each of the other five divisions. Who’s surprising? Who’s disappointing? Who’s just mediocre right now? Read on to find out.

(Note: Records are current, but other statistics are based on games played on Sunday, September 15.)

First place: Philadelphia Phillies (90-60)

Top position players: Bryce Harper (5.1 fWAR)
Best pitcher: Christopher Sanchez (4.7 fWAR)

The Phillies have extended their commanding lead in the division since we last checked in. They swept both the Rays and Blue Jays, split a four-game series with the Marlins and won a hard-fought series against the Mets last week. They are 10-4 this month and have an eight-game lead over the Mets. With the division all but set — their magic number is five — their main priority for the rest of the regular season is to secure a top-two spot for a bye in the Wild Card round. Their strong start to the month has also helped them put some distance in that race, as they are currently three games ahead of the NL Central-leading Brewers, who have a first-round bye (though Milwaukee has them for a series this week).

There have been positive developments on the injury front. Alec Bohm returned to the lineup on Sunday after being on the injured list since early September with a left hand injury. Pitcher Spencer Turnbull, who thrived as a long reliever before suffering a right lat injury in early June, is participating in live batting drills and is expected to return by the end of the month, according to Phillies manager Rob Thomson. In bad news, short-term addition Austin Hays was placed on the injured list on Sept. 5 with a kidney infection and no timetable for his return has been announced. JT Realmuto returned to play on Friday after missing a week with a foul on his left knee. He delivered a walk-off hit on Sunday to secure the series win over the Mets:

Zack Wheeler continues to lead the NL’s best rotation, lowering his ERA to 2.60 after strong performances against the Rays and Marlins. As we get to the leading Cy Young candidate in this check-in, it looks like Wheeler will finish second in the NL Cy Young race. Not to be outdone, Cristopher Sanchez surpassed Wheeler in FanGraphs’ WAR after a seven-inning, one-run gamble against the Mets on Sunday. Ranger Suárez, however, hasn’t been in great form since returning from injury on August 24. His most recent outing was rocky, allowing four runs on 12 hits in 5.1 innings against Tampa Bay.

On offense, Bryce Harper has carried the brunt of the load while other star hitters have been sidelined, posting an OPS of 1.090 in September. Although he hit well, he had a home run drought since August 8, but broke that drought last Saturday with two home runs to help defeat the Mets.

Second place: New York Mets (82-68)

Top position players: Francisco Lindor (7.4 fWAR)
Best pitcher: Sean Manaea (2.6 fWAR)

The team has been on tenterhooks since Friday night after Francisco Lindor left the game with back pain. On Monday, the team received what manager Carlos Mendoza called the “best news” after an MRI. Lindor told reporters he is expected to be out for a few days. Saturday was the first game he has missed this season. He was called into the lineup on Sunday but was taken out of the game after just one inning because of his back.

The most exciting playoff race in September is the NL Wild Card, with the Mets and Braves in a neck-and-neck race for the final playoff spot, while the Padres and Diamondbacks, with the Padres, are 3.5 and 1 points ahead of the NL East teams, respectively. Despite suffering a disappointing loss to Philadelphia last weekend, the Mets’ strong play in late August and early September have helped make it a close race. They swept the Red Sox earlier in the month and won series against the Blue Jays and Reds. The Mets began their recent weekend series against the Phillies with a slugfest against Aaron Nola, with Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Alvarez both hitting home runs and hitting the starter for six runs, but allowing the next two.

There are bigger concerns for the Mets as they fight for a playoff spot, but even if Lindor misses a few games, it could derail his late push to win the NL MVP. Despite Lindor’s stellar play as shortstop, Ohtani will beat Lindor in the most important hitting categories like on-base percentage, slugging, and pretty much every other statistic. However, if voters were still determining the award based on where a team would be without a single player, Lindor would have a good chance. Lindor has more fWAR than the next three Mets outfielders (Mark Vientos, Brandon Nimmo, and Pete Alonso) combined. Over the past 30 days, as the Mets have made up ground to get back in the playoff race, Lindor led all players in positional fWAR, hitting .308/.368/.636.

Mendoza told reporters that Kodai Senga will pitch a bullpen session on Tuesday as they look to have him back before the end of the regular season. The Mets currently lack a reliable front-end starter, and Senga, who posted a 2.98 ERA (139 ERA+) and an impressive 29.1 percent strikeout rate last year, would be a critical addition down the stretch.

The Mets have a tough schedule to end the year on. After a three-game series against the fourth-place Nationals, they will finish the season with matches against the Phillies, Braves and Brewers.

Third place: Atlanta Braves (81-69)

Top position players: Marcell Ozuna (4.4 fWAR)
Best pitcher: Chris Sale (6.4 fWAR)

While the Mets are gaining momentum, the Braves have lost ground and are now just one point out of the final Wild Card spot. Atlanta has a mediocre record of 7-7 this month as injuries seem to have caught up with them. All-Star starter Reynaldo López (2.03 ERA in 24 starts) was the latest to be placed on the injured list last week with shoulder inflammation. Imaging showed no structural damage, but he will be out until at least Sept. 26.

Chris Sale continues to dominate, posting shutouts against the Rockies and Blue Jays earlier in the month, followed by a spirited one-run performance against the Dodgers. To put things in perspective, he has allowed just nine total runs since June 1. He currently holds the Major League Pitching Triple Crown with 17 wins, a 2.35 ERA, and 225 strikeouts. It’s hard to imagine him not winning the Cy Young at this point. Shane Bieber won the Triple Crown in the pandemic-shortened 60-game 2020 season, leading both leagues in all three categories. Before that, the last pitcher to win a Pitching Triple Crown in both leagues was Johan Santana for the Twins in 2007.

Ozzie Albies has been on the injured list since July and is scheduled to begin rehabbing in Triple-A on Tuesday. The team had already lost Austin Riley and Ronald Acuña Jr. to injuries that ended their regular season. Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson and Ramón Laureano were their most productive hitters over the last month, but the lineup has yet to regain its former explosiveness.

Fourth place: Washington Nationals (68-82)

Top position players: Luis Garcia (2.9 fWAR)
Best pitcher: Mackenzie Gore (2.6 fWAR)

The Nats were officially eliminated from the playoffs on Thursday. The last time they reached the postseason was during their championship run in 2019. However, their rebuild appears to be on the up, thanks largely to the powerful bat of James Wood and last year’s No. 2 pick, Dylan Crews.

Since his debut in late August against the Yankees, Crews has made outstanding plays in right field and prevented hits.

Although he hasn’t quite hit his stride at the plate yet and has an OPS of .677, he has stolen eight bases in nine attempts, posing another threat on the base paths for the Nationals, who lead the league with 209 stolen bases.

Last place: Miami Marlins (55-95)

Top position players: Otto Lopez (1.8 fWAR)
Best pitcher: Calvin Faucher (1.3 fWAR)

The Marlins are pretty much just waiting for September to end. The franchise’s most highly prized outfielder, Xavier Edwards, has cooled off a bit this month, but he still has a .329/.398/.404 batting average through 58 games. That being said, the hitters have cooled off after a small uptick in August. 25-year-old second baseman Otto Lopez has been on a roll since August, posting a .299/.357/.429 batting average since Aug. 1. A nice story for the Marlins is Griffin Conine, the son of “Mr. Marlin” Jeff Conine, who was called up in September. Since moving to the big teams, Conine has posted a .245/.315/.388 batting average.

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