Cincinnati team total under 24.5
Best odds: -115 at DraftKings
After a 42-9 record in the AAC between 2019 and 2022, including an appearance in the College Football Playoff, the Cincinnati Bearcats moved to a Power 4 conference last year. However, Cincinnati’s transition to the Big 12 has not been smooth.
The Bearcats finished 3-9 with just one conference win last season, and after the first two games, things didn’t look much better for 2024.
Cincinnati struggled to beat FCS Towson in the opener and needed some explosive plays in the second half to pull away, never coming close to erasing a 34.5-point lead.
The Bearcats then suffered perhaps their worst collapse in a game this season. Cincy led Pitt 27-3 in the third quarter last week before the Panthers scored 25 unanswered points, came back and won 28-27.
This week, it won’t be any easier, as it’s the other Battle of Ohio when the Bearcats head to Miami (OH) to face the Miami RedHawks. You might be thinking, “A MAC team? That looks like a good place for Cincy.”
Well, not so fast.
Miami may be the best team in the MAC. They have a legit quarterback in Brett Gabbert and a top-notch defense. The RedHawks have only played one game this season, but they beat Northwestern hard, losing 13-6 on the road.
Oh, and Miami is confident because they know they can win this matchup. Last season, they beat Cincinnati 31-24 as a 14-point underdog.
Miami will be a game-winning opponent in this game, and one of the reasons for that is because Cincinnati’s offense has been inefficient and relied on explosive plays in the first two games. The RedHawks will limit those plays.
On offense, Miami will also look to use the running game to take advantage of Cincinnati’s weak run defense and pick and choose points of attack with Gabbert. This should limit the Bearcats’ possession and scoring opportunities.
Vanderbilt team total Over 27.5
Best odds: -120 at FanDuel
I’m pretty happy with my pick of over 2.5 wins in the regular season for the Vanderbilt Commodores.
After their surprise win over Virginia Tech, the Commodores dismantled FCS Alcorn State 55-0 and are now 10.5 point favorites for this week’s game against the Georgia State Panthers.
While that positive feeling won’t last when Vandy plays in the SEC, the Commodores are certainly one of the better stories to start this college football season. There are several reasons for that positive sentiment.
One is that Vanderbilt is well-coached by Clark Lea, now in his fourth season in Nashville. Lea has a reputation for getting the most out of his players, and he needs to, because given Vanderbilt’s high academic standards, it may be difficult for the Commodores to effectively utilize the transfer portal.
But boy, is there an exception this season. Lea brought in quarterback Diego Pavia from New Mexico State (as well as his offensive coordinator) and that has breathed life into the Vanderbilt offense.
Pavia is a true dual-threat quarterback who led the Aggies to a surprise berth in the C-USA championship and made them one of the best bets in the country by covering the spread once in 10 straight games last season.
Pavia continued that strategy throughout the start of his career at Vanderbilt. He threw for 273 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions and added another 155 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. He leads an offense that has scored 89 points in its first two games, and I don’t know if this Georgia State team can slow them down.
The Panthers have struggled through two games, losing their opener 35-12 to Georgia Tech before needing a late touchdown to beat FCS Chattanooga 24-21. The defense is weakened, ranking 128th in opponent yards per game and 101st in opponent yards per carry.
Look for Vanderbilt to rely on its power running game to deliver another solid offensive performance and get the over of its reasonable 27.5 team total.
Air Force-Baylor first half under 24.5
Best odds: -110 at bet365
Anyone who knows me knows I love a good Military Academy game, especially when I bet on the under. That brings me to this weekend’s matchup between the Air Force Falcons and Baylor Bears. While this isn’t exactly a “Service Academy Under” game where two triple-option teams beat each other, it’s not far off either.
Air Force has not only been the best among the service academy programs in recent years, but also a serious contender in the Mountain West. Unfortunately, this is a transition year for Air Force, and the Falcons could take a small step back.
Air Force has only seven starters this season. The team has replaced its entire offensive line, and the struggles were evident early in the season. We’re used to watching Air Force stand behind a strong offensive line and make drives of six yards each, but this season they’re averaging just 3.1 yards per carry.
As a result, the Falcons opened the season with a 21-6 win over FCS Merrimack, failing to cover a 30-point lead, and followed that up with a 17-7 loss to San Jose State despite holding a 3-point lead at home.
But do you think that will stop the Air Force from playing football? Of course not.
And then there’s this week’s opponent – Baylor. Despite the Bears signing former MAC Player of the Year Dequan Finn, the offense has looked poor through the first two games. Baylor enters this matchup ranked 106th in yards per game and, perhaps more surprisingly, they run the ball nearly 75% of the time.
And while Air Force has some weaknesses, defense is arguably its strength. The Falcons rank 40th in yards allowed per game and limit their opponents to just 2.7 yards per carry.
This may not be a Service Academy Under, but it will sure feel like one. Still, I’m a little worried that Baylor’s talent advantage will prevail over 60 minutes, so we’re betting this game will be under the first half total.
