Our attempt to decipher the Big Ten’s pecking order didn’t take long, nor did it require a deep dive into conference history. The key to 2024 was conveniently available in 2023 – in last year’s West Division standings.

You may recall that Iowa ended up two games ahead of Northwestern and Wisconsin. But from there on, the West was a mess, with four teams (Minnesota, Illinois, Nebraska and Purdue) tied for fourth place with 3-6 league records.

The Hotline doesn’t like to predict a tie, even when predicting an 18-team, divisionless race with nine conference games, so against our better judgment, we didn’t predict a tie.

But in 2024 there will be draws, folks. Draws between three teams. Draws between four teams. Maybe even a draw between five teams. And that’s how it will be across the table.

The blueprint for the first season of the Big Ten’s new chapter can be found in the final season of the previous Big Ten era.

Who would have thought that the West Division was ahead of its time with its outdated offenses and single-digit final scores.

About the forecast …

1. State of Ohio: For the Buckeyes, it’s a matter of the national championship or elimination – okay, maybe reaching the title game is enough – and for good reason: Thanks to a dream combination of returning stars and high-profile transfers, they are well positioned on the lines of scrimmage and at the skill positions. But Ohio State has to earn its place in the conference title game: The schedule is hotly contested with Michigan, Penn State, Oregon and Iowa.

2.Oregon: The Ducks should settle into their new home fairly quickly. Like Ohio State, they have retained their top talent and stocked up on elite transfers, including Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel. However, coach Dan Lanning will have to prove he can win close games against top competition, and the Ducks will have a number of cross-country trips to contend with in the second half of the season. The game against Wisconsin looks particularly dangerous to us.

3. Penn State: We see a significant gap between the top two teams and everyone else, with the Nittany Lions the favorites for third place. The defense will be excellent at every level, but is quarterback Drew Allar ready to make big throws in crucial situations of crucial games? The Nittany Lions aren’t playing Oregon or Michigan, which should help them in their quest to be the best of the rest.

4. Iowa: Schedule rotation played a key role in our prediction, especially for the Hawkeyes. They won’t face Michigan. Or Penn State. Or Oregon. Or USC. Add in a ton of returning starters and the upgrade from new offensive coordinator Tim Lester, who replaced Brian Ferentz, and Iowa City could have a quality season.

5.Michigan: The more we look into the Wolverines, the more skeptical we become. It’s not just the move to rookie coach Sherrone Moore, or the loss of so much NFL talent, or the challenging schedule, or the ongoing NCAA scandal, or the uncertainty surrounding the quarterback, or the hangover after a glorious season. It’s all of that, plus obstacles we haven’t considered — but that are sure to crop up.

6.USC: It would take unusual circumstances to relegate the Trojans to the second tier, but when you combine the move to the Big Ten with the loss of Caleb Williams and doubts about Lincoln Riley’s defense, USC looks more like a pretender than a contender. We expect the Trojans to improve their defense but slack on offense and trudge through the season, far behind the Big Ten’s two bigs.

7.Nebraska: The Hotline expects a big turnaround in Lincoln, just as second-year coach Matt Rhule engineered turnarounds in his second seasons at Temple and Baylor. A lot depends on freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola, who doesn’t have to make game-winning plays so much as avoid game-winning mistakes. It’s notable that Oregon, Michigan or Penn State aren’t on the schedule. Looking for a surprise candidate that could sneak into the conference championship game? Then consider the Huskers.

8. Wisconsin: If not Rhule, then Luke Fickell — one of the second-year head coaches — will spring a pleasant surprise (but probably not both). The Badgers lost six games last season and failed to score more than 14 points in four of those losses, so solutions are needed on that side of the scrimmage. Fortunately, a visit from Alabama in week three means we won’t have to wait long to assess Wisconsin’s chances in the Big Ten race.

9.Rutgers: There were several contenders, but the Scarlet Knights emerged as the biggest winner in the conference schedule lottery. They don’t play Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State or Oregon. That means Greg Schiano is in the best hands… and has no excuses for anything less than a top-half finish.

10. Maryland: We’ve reached the point in the forecast where it becomes exceedingly difficult to identify significant differences in mediocre teams and write a witty or incisive comment, so let’s just wish the Terps well and move on.

11. Washington: If Jedd Fisch wanted to temper expectations for UW when he took the podium at Big Ten media days and detailed all of the changes to Montlake’s roster and personnel, he certainly succeeded. The Huskies simply lack the continuity where it matters most, on the offensive line and in the secondary, to produce enough wins to compete. Especially with one of the toughest road schedules (Iowa, Penn State, Oregon) in the conference.

12.Indiana: We considered putting the Hoosiers at No. 10 or even No. 15 — they’re tough to rate with a new coach, Curt Cignetti, who won big at James Madison. Success in the Group of Five doesn’t always translate to the power conference level, especially when it comes to football coaches at basketball schools surrounded by high-profile football stars.

13. State of Michigan: Speaking of football coaches at basketball schools surrounded by football royalty: Jonathan Smith faces a difficult task in his new job, at least this year. After all, Aidan Chiles could become an outstanding quarterback and lift the Spartans out of the mass of mediocrity in the middle of the Big Ten rankings. But not this year. Too soon.