The New England Patriots will make their primetime debut Thursday night, taking on the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford. Although the home team is listed as a 6.5-point favorite, both teams enter the contest with identical 1-1 records.
For the Patriots to get to 2-1 this year and distance themselves from their division rivals, they must follow the tried and tested recipe: control the ball and the clock on offense and play strong, rock-solid football on defense.
Will they make it? If so, it all starts with this week’s X-Factors.
X-Factor: Offensive line inside
Based on the season so far, the Patriots’ offensive line could be listed in this category every week, but given the opponents the group will face on Thursday night, it deserves a special mention – for two different reasons.
The first is the quality of the opponent and one player in particular: Quinnen Williams. The veteran is one of the best defensive tackles in football and a player who can single-handedly disrupt an offense. The Patriots know this as well as anyone and experienced it first-hand last year: In their two meetings with the Jets in 2023, they saw him record a total of 12 quarterback pressures, including two sacks.
Keeping Williams in check will be a daunting task for a group that has survived 12 pressure situations this year. Left guard Michael Jordan, center David Andrews and right guard Layden Robinson will have to bring their best – both individually and as a group.
Pass protection is only part of the job. The Patriots must continue to excel in the running game, too, especially if they want to put quarterback Jacoby Brissett in better position.
Fortunately for New England—reason #2—the Jets have struggled with the running game. They rank just 24th in the league in both run defense EPA per play (0.011) and rushing yards given up per game (155.0), and had a particularly tough time in Week 1 against the perimeter-heavy San Francisco 49ers.
The Patriots have switched to more zone blocking this season under new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt and will look to replicate the 49ers’ success on Thursday. If they can do that, their chances of pulling off an upset win will increase significantly.
Other X-Factors this week
The offensive tackles: The interior O-line is just one piece of the puzzle. The Patriots will also need to get their tackles on point against a Jets team that ranks fifth in the NFL in pressure rate (40.6%) entering Week 3. On the left side, rookie Caedan Wallace is expected to make his first career start; on the right side, Michael Onwenu is trying to rebound from arguably the worst individual performance of his career. Luckily for them, New York will be without its most dominant pass rusher.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson: In order to exploit the Jets’ weaknesses in the running game, it’s not just the offensive line that’s important, but also the Patriots’ running backs. The best of them is, of course, Rhamondre Stevenson. The fourth-year player has carried the ball 46 times in two games and can expect a decent workload even after a short break. Whether he can keep up his pace is another question, however.
WR DeMario Douglas: The Patriots’ second-year wide receiver expressed frustration with the lack of involvement in Weeks 1 and 2. Will Week 3 bring change? Perhaps it will have to, considering the team’s disappointing passing performance this season. The fact is, Douglas is New England’s most dynamic pass receiver and a player who can change the dynamic of his team’s air attack.
EN Keion White: At 40 years old and with a season-ending Achilles injury, Aaron Rodgers is no longer the agile quarterback he was earlier in his career. When you throw the ball out in an average of 2.38 seconds – the second-fastest time in the NFL – you don’t have to be. As a result, the Patriots’ pass rush, led by second-year phenom Keion White, will have to win quickly, decisively and consistently to make an impact on the future Hall of Famer.
LB Jahlani Tavai and LB Raekwon McMillan: Running back Breece Hall has touched the ball on 42 of New York’s 80 offensive plays this season. Hall has led the Jets in both runs (30) and receptions (12) through the first two games and is a key part of the team’s offensive machine. The Patriots’ linebackers in particular will have their hands full trying to keep him in check: They will not only have to choose their gaps carefully, but also stay behind him in coverage.
CB Marcus Jones: If Christian Gonzalez does his thing and puts pressure on the Jets’ No. 1 wide receiver Garrett Wilson – the then-rookie limited him to 18 yards on three catches in their only meeting last year – Aaron Rodgers will likely look for alternate receivers. Breece Hall is one of them, but so is Allen Lazard. As New York’s primary slot option, he’ll likely get a lot of snaps opposite Marcus Jones. The third-year DB may have to brace himself for a whole lot of offense coming his way.
S Kyle Dugger: After Ja’Whaun Bentley suffered a season-ending chest injury against Seattle on Sunday, the role of primary communicator on the field has now fallen on Dugger’s shoulders. He’s a seasoned veteran and one of the most important players on the entire roster, period, but he’s not immune to mistakes either: Against the Seahawks, a blitz call led to a long touchdown pass for wide receiver DK Metcalf. Similar mistakes against a player as experienced as Aaron Rodgers would be fatal.
