NORMAN – The third season of the Brent Venables era at OU and the first season for the Sooners in the SEC is just around the corner.
OU opens the season on Friday, August 30th against Temple with promising prospects but also many question marks.
Here’s a look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for every OU game this season:
More: How new analyst rules will affect OU football’s special teams under Doug Deakin
August 30 against Temple (6 p.m., ESPN)
Best case: The Jackson Arnold era gets off to a thrilling start. The second-year quarterback throws touchdowns to multiple receivers, avoids turnovers and is out of the game at halftime as the Sooners take control of the game. The defense shuts down the Owls and shows its strength in a shutout.
Worst case: They once again got the turnovers that Arnold struggled with in the Alamo Bowl right. The offensive line looks full of holes as Arnold is thrown off course and the running backs have little room to work. The defense helps the Sooners to a closer win than expected, but shows cracks that could become problematic later in the season.
-Ryan Aber
More: OU’s Billy Bowman Jr. and Danny Stutsman are selected to the All-SEC football first team as preseason coaches
September 7 against Houston (6:45 p.m., SEC Network)
Best case: Arnold finds his rhythm in his second regular season game. OU’s abundance of offensive weapons and strong defense overwhelm a Houston team that was rated second to last in the Big 12 preseason poll. The Sooners’ defense forces several turnovers en route to a clear victory over the Cougars.
Worst case: Willie Fritz has Houston ready to go in his second game as head coach. Fritz, who was two straight AAC Coach of the Year with Tulane, inspires his team enough to hold on tight in Norman. Despite what EA Sports’ College Football 25 video game constantly simulates, it will be tough for the Cougars to win in Norman. But worst-case scenario, OU escapes with a narrow victory.
-Colton Sulley
More: OU’s Billy Bowman Jr. and Danny Stutsman are selected to the All-SEC football first team as preseason coaches
September 14 against Tulane (2:30 p.m., ESPN or ESPN2)
Best case: OU’s defense shuts down star running back Makhi Hughes and the Sooners win comfortably in what will likely be their most challenging non-conference game.
Worst case: Former Sooners wide receiver Mario Williams destroys his former team with a monster game as the Green Wave finished what they almost did in 2021 by defeating OU in Norman.
-Ryan Aber
September 21 against Tennessee (2:30-3:30 p.m. or 5:00-7:00 p.m.)
Best case: OU begins its SEC history 1-0. The Sooners celebrate national championship-winning quarterback Josh Heupel, Arnold goes toe-to-toe with Nico Iamaleava, a five-star quarterback from the class of 2023, and OU defeats the Volunteers in a classic game. The Sooners start their conference slate – which includes six top-15 opponents – on the right foot.
Worst case: Tennessee edge rusher James Pearce Jr. wreaks havoc on OU’s rebuilt offensive line, causing Arnold to run for his life and lose the ball. The Sooners don’t appear ready for SEC play, which is a concern a week before they leave for Auburn.
-Colton Sulley
September 28th in Auburn (2:30-3:30 p.m.)
Best case: Arnold tears down a suspect Tigers secondary while both Deion Burks and Jalil Farooq put up big numbers. In his first SEC road game, the game closest to his home opener during the regular season, Danny Stutsman racks up double-digit tackle numbers as the Sooners take off.
Worst case: The Sooners fall to 0-2 in SEC play after a sloppy performance at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Arnold isn’t the only one struggling with turnovers, as Gavin Sawchuk and Jovantae Barnes lose the ball and OU faces an uphill battle to get out of its hole.
-Ryan Aber
More: How new analyst rules will affect OU football’s special teams under Doug Deakin
October 12 against Texas in Dallas (2:30 p.m., ABC or ESPN)
Best case: Arnold, like many previous Sooner quarterbacks before him, etched his name in Red River Rivalry history by defeating a top-three ranked Texas team. OU’s defense picked up where it left off last year, and Stutsman made a game-winning play late in the game to seal the victory over a Longhorns team looking forward to its game against Georgia on Oct. 19.
Worst case: The Longhorns dominate the Sooners and are now 6-0. Texas’ full roster is too strong for OU, as Quinn Ewers’ performance puts him squarely in the running for the Heisman Trophy. After two rough first seasons, Steve Sarkisian appears to have the Longhorns well ahead of Venables’ Sooners in the class of SEC powers.
-Colton Sulley
Oct. 19 vs. South Carolina (11 a.m.-12 p.m.)
Best case: The Sooners’ pass rush kept the Gamecocks’ offense on edge from the start. Freshmen Jayden Jackson and David Stone both recorded sacks, further demonstrating the progress Zac Alley’s defense has made and showing how promising the offense is not only for the rest of the season, but for years to come if OU beats South Carolina.
Worst case: Shane Beamer’s valiant Gamecocks keep the Sooners on their toes and pull off the upset. Worse, it’s quarterback Davis Beville who comes off the bench late and makes the play that seals OU’s fate, giving him a storybook moment after transferring from Norman in the offseason.
-Ryan Aber
Oct. 26 in Mississippi (11 a.m.-12 p.m.)
Best case: OU’s defense continues to dominate, stopping Mississippi’s potent offense. Venables’ defensive toughness surpasses Lane Kiffin’s offensive wizardry. The Sooners’ offensive line is able to contain star defensive lineman Walter Nolen enough to allow Arnold to be productive and OU to earn a tough road win.
Worst case: Nolen dominates the Sooners’ offensive line and Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart throws five touchdown passes – three of them to Tre Harris – and remains in the race for the Heisman Trophy.
-Colton Sulley
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November 2 against Maine (1:30 p.m., ESPN+, SEC Network+)
Best case: Before a grueling three-game series to end the season, this game serves as a respite as the future of the Sooners is on display. Freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. is getting his most significant playing time of the season, pairing with freshman wide receivers Ivan Carreon, Zion Kearney and Zion Ragins to provide plenty of hope for OU’s offensive future while the Sooners preserve the health of their core players.
Worst case: The Black Bears are inferior, but strong and keep the game on edge at least until the early part of the second half. OU can hardly give its regular players a rest, as the Sooners cannot find much rhythm on either side of the ball.
-Ryan Aber
November 9 in Missouri (2:30-3:30 p.m. or 5:00-7:00 p.m.)
Best case: OU easily sweeps its old Big 12 rival on the road. Arnold finds his rhythm and looks like one of the best quarterbacks in the conference. Luther Burden III gives the Sooners defense some problems, but without him the Tigers struggle. Brady Cook loses the ball a couple of times and OU fans have something to cheer about at Missouri’s expense after losing numerous players to the Tigers in recent years.
Worst case: Missouri is proving to be the team that experts predicted. The Sooners’ defense is too loaded and Eliah Drinkwitz is suddenly at the top of the list of coaches vying for open top jobs in the SEC.
-Colton Sulley
More: OU football A-Z: Everything you need to know about the 2024 Oklahoma Sooners
Nov. 23 vs. Alabama (2:30-3:30 p.m. or 5:00-7:00 p.m.)
Best case: In the Sooners’ biggest home game in a long time, OU solidifies its position in the College Football Playoff and stays in the SEC Championship Game with a win over the Crimson Tide that knocks Alabama out of the running for both spots. Arnold stays in the Heisman Trophy race with another one-game showpiece.
Worst case: Injuries force players who aren’t quite ready into the rotation. The Sooners collapse and are out of the bowl race with another tough game still on the schedule. Alabama rolls over the Sooners, keeping the Crimson Tide’s hopes of making the CFP and SEC title games alive, while OU has to finish the season with little to look forward to other than next season.
-Ryan Aber
November 30 at LSU (2:30–3:30 p.m. or 5:00–7:00 p.m.)
Best case: OU gets its best road win since beating Ohio State in 2017, and by the end of the season, the Sooners will be competitive in the SEC going forward. Arnold destroys an LSU defense that looks like it will be in 2023, and the defense of Venables and Alley solidifies itself as OU’s best in more than a decade.
Worst case: The Sooners fall apart in one of the best atmospheres in the country. OU is drowned out by the noise of Death Valley and Arnold’s turnover problems lead to a tough loss to end the season.
-Colton Sulley
