Zack Wheeler is one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball and can tame a relatively strong Brewers lineup tonight in Milwaukee. The Philly hitters can increase Wheeler’s chances of winning when they face Frankie Montas.
Philadelphia Phillies star Zack Wheeler looks to continue his strong season when he faces Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Frankie Montas.
My prediction for the Phillies vs. Brewers game is strongly in favor of the favorite, mainly because of the two pitchers.
Read on to find out my MLB picks for Tuesday, September 17th.
Prediction for Phillies vs. Brewers
My best bet
Phillies -1.5 (+120 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Frankie Montas is 7-10 with a 4.49 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP after 27 starts this season.
His underlying numbers are equally poor, as the right-hander ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate and hard hit rate. Those issues will likely continue against the Philadelphia Phillies.
For Philadelphia, ace Zack Wheeler is on the mound. He outperformed Montas in all of the above categories and was one of the favorites for the NL Cy Young for most of the season.
Wheeler goes into this duel in particularly dominant form: He has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last eight starts and has a record of 5-1 and an ERA of 1.76 during that time.
Not only do the Phillies have the advantage in pitching, they are also the better hitting team, outperforming the Brewers in hits per game, batting average, SLG, OPS and home runs.
Phillies vs Brewers Same Game Combo (SGP)
Phillies -1.5
Frankie Montas: Under 5.5 strikeouts
Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 hits
Montas is also in the bottom half of the league in chase, whiff and strikeout rates. Philadelphia is also in the top half of the league in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers.
If we bet on the Phillies winning by several runs while Montas weakens, a highly correlated outcome would be some hits to follow. Enter Brandon Marsh, who has a .298 xBA in 12 career plate appearances against Montas.
Marsh has been a monster over the last month, recording 23 hits for a .338 average in his last 21 games.
Learn how to bet on the same game in an accumulator bet with these helpful tips and strategies.
Odds for Phillies vs. Brewers
Phillies vs Brewers live odds
Phillies vs Brewers Opening Odds
- Money line: Philadelphia -150 | Milwaukee +125
- Execute line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+115) | Milwaukee +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120)
Phillies vs Brewers Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis
- Philadelphia opened as a -148 favorite and remains at that price at the time of this writing.
- I expect this line to widen due to all of the variables mentioned above.
- The total stake was initially 7.5 and has since been reduced to seven.
- This line movement surprises me given the strong lineups, but it speaks volumes about how dominant Wheeler was.
Trend Phillies vs. Brewers
Philadelphia has won by two or more runs in seven of Wheeler’s last 12 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Brewers here.
Game info Phillies vs Brewers
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin |
| Date: | Tuesday, 17.9.2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Zack Wheeler (15-6, 2.60 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Frankie Montas (7-10, 4.49 ERA) |
Phillies vs Brewers – latest injuries
Weather for Phillies vs. Brewers
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