The Ukrainian 95th Air Assault Brigade in action this summer.
95th Air Assault Brigade Photo
Many observers – including apparently many Russians – were shocked when Ukrainian engineers in a former Soviet IMR-2 engineer vehicle broke through Russian defenses along the Russian-Ukrainian border south of the Russian village of Novy Put on Thursday.
The village is located 32 kilometers west of the main Ukrainian front in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Six weeks ago, a powerful Ukrainian force – about a dozen battalions from about eight experienced brigades – entered Kursk and quickly seized control of 1,000 square kilometers of Russian soil.
If it was unclear last week why the Ukrainians would also invade the Novyi Put area, it is now somewhat clearer. Supported by tanks and covered by Ukrainian Air Force fighter jets dropping building-destroying glide bombs, a Ukrainian tactical group apparently carried by the 95th Air Assault Brigade is cutting straight ahead as it advances past Novyi Put and through the southern blocks of the nearest Russian town, Vesoloe.
That is, the Ukrainian troops are turning to the main Kursk salient. If the Ukrainians, attacking from Novyi Put to the northeast, can link up with the Ukrainians in the main salient, they will potentially cut off thousands of Russians between themselves and the border.
However, it is possible that the Ukrainians do not have sufficiently well-equipped troops to carry out the maneuver.
The Ukrainian Khorne group, a drone pilot group supporting the attack on Novy Put, indicated the target of the encirclement at the start of the attack behind Novy Put. “We have advanced several kilometers into new territory, into Russia,” the group said on Friday. “A group of thousands of Russian conscripts is in danger of being encircled.”
Should the Ukrainians actually attempt to encircle Russian forces, this will be made easier by the local geography. The Sejm River forms a natural border along most of the northern border of the potential pocket, which is bordered on the left and right flanks by advancing Ukrainian forces.
The Ukrainian trains are blue, the Russian ones are red.
Google map by David Axe
Ukrainian bombs and rockets have destroyed all permanent bridges over the Sejm in this area, so that all Russians south of the Sejm – and this could be entire battalions – have to rely on makeshift pontoon bridges or a narrow land bridge through the town of Korenevo for their supplies.
For this reason, the Ukrainians relentlessly bombard the pontoons as soon as the Russians install them. And for the same reason, a Ukrainian force supported by the 225th Assault Battalion is marching toward Korenevo with the obvious intention of severing the land bridge.
A Russian counterattack on Kursk that began last week has not made much progress. In fact, it has worsened the Russian position in the pocket by sending additional troops into the potential pocket south of Korenevo.
Geography is not everything. The balance of power in Kursk could affect the Ukrainians’ chances of success in closing a possible encirclement. It appears that Kiev has allocated around 10,000 troops for the two-pronged invasion of Kursk. Moscow has indeed sent 38,000 troops to the oblast – but many of them are poorly trained young conscripts.
Russia is struggling to attract skilled workers. Ukraine is struggling to any Personnel – and there is also an urgent shortage of modern armored vehicles. Only four of the 14 new brigades of the Ukrainian armed forces have enough modern vehicles, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told CNN.
Zelensky said Ukraine’s ambitions on the battlefield were limited by a lack of equipment. “We have the desire, but the means are lacking.”
