Rangers manager Bruce Bochy informed the club today that the right-hander Tyler Mahle is placed on the 15-day injured list due to shoulder stiffness. Right-handed Jon Gray is being withdrawn from his own IL stint in a corresponding move. Kennedi Landry of MLB.com was among those who broke the news on X.
Mahle, now 29, underwent Tommy John surgery last summer, shortly before becoming a free agent for the first time in his career. The Rangers then signed him to a two-year, $22 million contract, knowing they couldn’t expect him to join the club until midway through the 2024 season at the earliest. He was on the injured list until two weeks ago and has worked three innings since then, going five innings in the first of those, then four and two-thirds, followed by just three innings in Sunday’s game.
It’s unclear if the shoulder was a problem in his last outing or if it’s been bothering him since then. While he was taken out after just three innings, he also allowed four earned runs on six hits and recorded just one strikeout, so his absence may have been due to his performance rather than his health.
Shoulder issues have been a problem for him before, as he started just six times in the 2022 season after July 2 due to a strain and inflammation. Because of those shoulder issues and his recent Tommy John release, he has had a reduced workload for three straight seasons.
The Rangers have fallen down the standings of late, and are now 11 games behind the Astros in the West and 12.5 games out of a wild card spot. Both the playoff odds at FanGraphs and the PECOTA ratings at Baseball Prospectus give them just a 0.4% chance of making the postseason at this point.
With the club’s season hanging in the balance, they may make their decisions based on optimizing results next year. Ideally, Mahle would increase his workload as he hasn’t pitched much in recent years, but pitching while injured carries the risk of aggravating his shoulder, which has given him problems in the past, so the club seems to have decided that a breather is the best decision for now. Assuming the issue isn’t severe, he may be able to return for the final few weeks and play a few innings in September.
There could be significant changes to the club’s squad in the future. Jacob deGrom begins a rehabilitation mission this week and Max Scherzer will be the case on X, according to Landry. When these two return, they will probably be included in the rotation with Gray, Nathan Eovaldi And Andrew Heaneywith Cody Bradford And Dane Dunning is also there and maybe Mahle will come by again later.
Looking ahead to next year, Scherzer and Heaney are soon to be free agents, and Eovaldi may hit the open market along with them. Eovaldi’s contract includes a $20 million conditional player option that he will unlock if he pitches 300 total innings in 2023 and 2024 or finishes in the top five in Cy Young voting this year. Even if he unlocks that option, which is possible since he has pitched 271 innings since the start of last year, he could decline it and opt for free agency since he is having a strong season and could expect a larger guarantee in free agency.
Without those three, Texas’ 2025 rotation is expected to include deGrom, Mahle and Gray. The latter two, as mentioned, are coming off lengthy Tommy John rehab treatments and could have workload issues next year. Bradford also missed a lot of time this year due to a back strain and has only 14 major league appearances. Dunning has often been in the club’s swingman/sixth starter role, moving between the bullpen and the rotation as needed. Outlook Jack Leiter And Owen White are on the 40-man roster, but both have ongoing control issues.
The Rangers are still the reigning World Series champions for a few months, but defending the title was clearly not what they had in mind. Perhaps that will prompt them to shake up their rotation composition in the offseason, as there is a lot of uncertainty in next year’s group.
