While the election drama of the last few weeks has mainly revolved around the reshuffle of the Democratic candidate list, the specter of an eccentric ex-Democrat continues to loom over the election.

Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – fighter against big corporations, vaccine skeptic and frequent conspiracy theorist – is polling at around 5%, the highest of any third-party candidate since Ross Perotin the 1990s. RFK’s numbers are particularly strong in Latin Americans (24%) and voters under 30 (10%)

RFK can’t win. But his support could decide a close election. RFK’s support in Pennsylvania and Michigan (5-6%) is larger than the likely lead. No wonder Trump, whose voters in particular was enthusiastic about Kennedy and recently asked him privately for his support.

But RFK’s juice is running out. A wave of controversy – from a worm eating his brain to a bizarre incident involving a dead bear – has hurt him. His approval ratings have been negative for months. Although he made it onto the ballot in Texas, he was kicked out in New York for using a false address. Other states may follow his example.

Meanwhile, there is new enthusiasm for Kamala Harris’ The campaign can counteract the disillusionment that drives third-party interest. With less than three months to go until Election Day, RFK Jr. must use his kingmaker power or lose it. Will he?