Luis Gil appears to be back to his early-season form, and the Royals will have a tough time matching him tonight in the Bronx.
It will be an emotional evening in the Empire State as the New York Yankees face the Kansas City Royals and commemorate the victims of September 11th.
The two teams split the first game of the series, so the winner will be decided tonight, but several factors suggest that my prediction for the Royals vs. Yankees game is more in favor of the home team.
Find out why I’m betting on a Pinstripes win in my MLB picks for September 11, regardless of emotional motives.
Prediction Royals vs. Yankees
My best bet
Yankees moneyline (-148 at FanDuel)
My analysis
I like the New York Yankees here, and part of that claim is that I believe Yankees pitcher Luis Gil is “back.” He definitely looked like it in his last start, and that’s why I’m downplaying this to the starting number of -154.
After a brief stint on the injured list, Gil seemed to be back to his old strength in his first start, striking out seven players and allowing just one hit from the Chicago Cubs in six innings. That’s bad news for the Kansas City Royals in this matchup.
The Royals have avoided getting many strikeouts for much of the season. The only problem is that it never seemed sustainable considering how much they swing and sometimes chase pitches. That has caught up with them lately, they are ninth in strikeout rate over the last month and have been similar over the last three games.
Maybe it’s a blip in the season, but given that they’ve been anticipating this regression, I’m not willing to say they’re coming out of that phase too soon. I’m betting they won’t today, and that will play right into Gil’s hands.
On the other hand, Cole Ragans will be on the mound for Kansas City. Ragans has had a solid season and most notably just pitched a six-inning shutout against the Cleveland Guardians. But this matchup seems problematic to me.
Ragans, a left-hander, will challenge New York hitters with his fastball. He doesn’t shy away from it, even in the toughest matchups, and is throwing it more than 40% of the time overall this season.
As I’ve documented extensively this season, New York has some of the best fastball hitters in baseball at the top of its lineup. That’s especially true with Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, some of the best fastball hitters in the sport’s recent history. And what’s even better for them? Both have had a slight uptick against left-handed pitchers this season.
In this likely low-scoring game, I give the Yankees a significant edge. I expect them to do enough damage to get the job done, especially with a pitcher like Gil, who looks like the player we saw earlier this season.
Aaron Richter’s choice: Home Sweet Homer
My best bet
Homerun by Aaron Judge (+270 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Judge ends the slump tonight. The Yankees superstar is in a slump, at least from a home run perspective. It’s the longest stretch of his career since 2019: 13 games. That makes us think he just belongs here.
That’s especially true given the splits we discussed above. Judge is now ninth in isolated hitting power when facing left-handed pitchers. Tonight, he’s facing a left-hander who throws a fastball with high velocity. What has Judge done against the fastball this season? He just posted the fifth-highest hard hit rate and third-highest slugging rate against it among all qualified hitters in the sport. That fits tonight.
Royals vs. Yankees – Same Game Combo (SGP)
Yankees Moneyline
Aaron Judge scores an RBI
If you can wait until the lineups are official, whoever bats fourth behind the two bigs might have a better RBI rating. Either way, we like that. We’re putting Judge to get an RBI as our best bet.
Judge has been in a bit of a slump lately, but given the matchup, you have to like him at this point. It’s a bit of a repeat of our best bet that Judge will hit deep, but here you have the advantage of playing to Soto’s strengths against the fastball. It also helps that Ragan is unlikely to walk Judge, given how he’s historically pitched against big hitters this season.
Learn how to bet on the same game in an accumulator bet with these helpful tips and strategies.
Royals vs. Yankees odds
Royals vs Yankees live odds
Opening odds Royals vs. Yankees
- Money line: Kansas City +125 | New York -150
- Execute line: Kansas City +1.5 (-160) | New York -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Royals vs. Yankees Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis
- Kansas City has struggled over its last 10 games, posting a 5-5 record, leaving bettors with only a small loss of less than half a unit.
- New York was worse in that stretch, going 4-6, and costing bettors a lot more money. If you backed the Yankees in all of the last 10 games, you’ve lost nearly four units.
- The series was quite hard-fought over the last ten games, with New York narrowly ahead 6-4.
- Since the open, we have seen a slight movement in the Royals, with the price moving about five cents in this direction.
Trend Royals vs. Yankees
The Royals have covered the run line in 80 of their last 142 games (+9.39 units / 5% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Yankees here.
Game info Royals vs. Yankees
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York |
| Date: | Wednesday, 11.9.2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSKC, AmazonPV |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Cole Ragan’s (11-9, 3.33 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (13-6, 3.24 ERA) |
Royals vs. Yankees: Latest Injuries
Weather Royals vs. Yankees
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