OA strange divide has opened up on the women’s tour in recent years. On the one hand, the rankings don’t lie. World No. 1 Iga Swiatek has been the best player in all events for the past 52 weeks and has rightfully earned her place at the top by consistently winning major titles on hard court and clay court, in addition to her half-decade of dominance at Roland Garros.
But at the Grand Slams, the tournaments that count the most, things are a little different these days. World No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka has now reached the finals of the last four hardcourt majors and has made her presence felt in the semifinals or better in seven of the last eight tournaments she has played in. It is equally clear that she is the best player in the world at the Grand Slams and on Saturday she will be looking to win her third such title in two years.
It’s been remarkable to see the Belarusian evolve from a one-dimensional and extremely offensive player to a more thoughtful, refined player who better understands how to use her tremendous power and score points properly. She’s learned to opt for slightly more percentage-based decisions while still pulverizing the ball, and has added more nuance to her game by incorporating a greater variety of shots.
Although she still plays with the same burning fire, the 26-year-old has also learned to keep a cool head in adversity. When everything seemed to be falling apart in the second set of her semifinal against Emma Navarro, Sabalenka remained composed and pulled herself together in a remarkable tiebreak, breaking through Navarro’s impressive defense and incorporating smart, well-executed drop shots and net approaches alongside her typically brutal ball-striking.
She will be looking to capitalize on all of those improvements in a final that will see the two most in-form players on the North American hardcourt tour once again face off. While surprising results and upsets in women’s Grand Slam draws over the past decade have often provided a welcome contrast to the more orderly men’s tour, this year the tables have turned. The results in New York simply mirrored the pecking order of the weeks before.
Before the US Open, the two main stories were the changing fortunes of Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula. After a difficult season due to neck and back injuries that forced her to miss the entire clay-court season, the American found her feet on the hard courts of Toronto by winning the Canadian Open tournament in August and then reaching the final of the Cincinnati Open. In that final, she lost to Sabalenka, who had found her form after a shoulder injury forced her to withdraw from Wimbledon. They will now continue their rivalry on tennis’ biggest stage.
While Sabalenka’s record at major tournaments is remarkable, these victories have also underscored her vulnerability. For all the Grand Slam matches she’s won in recent years, she could have won even more major titles if she wasn’t so prone to collapsing in big matches. Two years ago, Sabalenka led 4-2 against Swiatek in the final set of her US Open semifinal before losing the next four games. Then, she had match point against Karolina Muchova at 5-2 in the final set of her 2023 French Open semifinal before losing five games in a row. At Wimbledon, she led 7-6 (5), 4-2 in another semifinal against Ons Jabeur before losing four games in a row and eventually the match. Last year in the US Open final, she let the deafening crowd infuriate her and collapsed after winning the first set.
In her first Grand Slam final, Pegula has a difficult task against an opponent who hits a significantly bigger ball and is capable of knocking her off the court. In recent years, Sabalenka has seemed to enjoy the consistent, flat ball that the world No. 6 offers and leads the head-to-head 5-2. Pegula’s only victory in the last four years came in pouring wind at the WTA Finals last year.
It will be up to the 30-year-old Pegula to embarrass her opponent by continuing to receive the ball early, strike on the second serve and maintain her typically excellent depth throughout the match. She showed in her superb semifinal comeback win over Muchova that she can stay mentally strong in the decisive moments. Now she faces the challenge of using the home crowd to her advantage and exposing Sabalenka’s mental vulnerabilities as best she can while maintaining control of her own emotions in the biggest moment of her 15-year career.
