Sunday, 22 September 2024
Morning report
Today is the first day of fall, and it will feel like it. But last night, severe thunderstorms passed through our area. The heaviest storm was between 1 and 4 a.m., which was close to what we expected. Still, they woke many people up and knocked out power in some areas. There were reports of lots of lightning, loud thunder, and even heavy hail – a rarity this time of year…especially after midnight.
Radar Summary 1:00 to 3:30 a.m.
Here’s the post I wrote just after 1:35 a.m. The comments help tell the story of the impact from southern Pennsylvania to north-central Maryland.
TODAY:
Fall officially begins at 8:43 a.m. That’s when the sun’s direct rays cross the equator and then travel south until spring. Our daylight duration gets about 2 minutes and 30 seconds shorter each day! This rapid decline means that temperatures in our climate records get one degree cooler every three days.
The coming week will bring clouds, cooler temperatures around 20 degrees and rain showers almost every day. The best chance of persistent rain will be on Wednesday and Thursday when a frontal front moves slowly.
Later in the week and over the weekend, the outlook is uncertain. There is a risk of a tropical storm developing. More on that below.
Coastal flood warning
The highest water level in places like Annapolis may have been reached during this morning’s high tide. The river overflowed into the parking lot of the City Dock.
Flooding in Annapolis:
Cloud forecast: 8 a.m. to 6 p.m.
The easterly wind should drive the clouds inland. The sky will be partly sunny (more clouds) inland until clearing further east.
Afternoon snapshot
Afternoon temperatures
CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore
TODAY 22 September
Sunrise at 6:55 am
Sunset at 19:03
Normal low in Baltimore: 57ºF
Record temperature 37ºF in 1962
Normal high temperature in Baltimore: 78ºF
Record temperature 37ºC 1931 (record heat this year)
SECOND OF FOUR FULL SUPERMOONS
Click here to view the full report:
MONDAY 23 SEPTEMBER
Morning temperatures
Wind forecast 6am to 4pm
A light breeze and more clouds will help keep temperatures in the eastern areas just above 25 degrees. West of the mountains it will be warmer.
Afternoon temperatures
OUTLOOK
GFS model forecast animation
Monday to Friday
The weather pattern calls for a slow-moving cold front to creep across the eastern United States and come to a near standstill. Rain will become more steady over the Ohio Valley and mountains, bringing waves of showers each day. The more steady rain will move into the I-95 corridor Wednesday into Thursday.
The big question is the potential tropical system that could form in the Gulf of Mexico and move ashore by the end of the week. More on that below.
Wednesday afternoon
The slow-moving boundary is expected to move eastward and come to a near standstill over the Mid-Atlantic at this time, bringing steady moderate to heavy rain for most of the day.
Thursday morning
The best chances for persistent rain are along this immovable border.
TROPICAL OUTLOOK
The National Hurricane Center’s 7-day outlook
The chances of a development this week are up to 70%.
Storm traces
There is a big difference between the GFS and the European ECMWF models. This is because the storm has not yet formed. The models will only be able to properly estimate it when there is a clear low pressure center and they know where and when it will form.
Click here or on the images to view this morning’s full tropical report.
7-day forecast
This chart looks like a very wet week, but the days with the highest chance of rain are Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, we will see occasional showers. The end of the week and the weekend depend on the possible development of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.
Please share your thoughts and best weather pictures/videos or just stay in touch via social media.
Plan a weather-dependent trunk assembly
Severe weather: Storm Smart October and next spring
Winter weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November to March
Click here to see more and submit a request for your school.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH:
Baltimore Magazine Readers’ Choice The Best of Baltimore
Maryland Trek 11 Day 7 Completed Sat 10 August
We have raised OVER $104,000 for Just In Power Kids – AND are still raising more
The annual event: 329 miles of hiking and biking in 7 days between the summit of Wisp and Ocean City.
Every day we honor the journey of a child and his family through cancer.
The fundraising goes to Just In Power Kids: funding free holistic programs. I have never taken a penny and never will. It’s all about running our nonprofit.
Click here or on the image to donate:
My message about dyslexia again
I realize there are some spelling and grammatical errors and the occasional other mishap. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer errors I might miss. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here, you may have missed it: I’m dyslexic and found out in my sophomore year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my degree in meteorology and being the first to receive the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area.
One of my professors told me that I had come this far without prior knowledge and that I shouldn’t use it as a crutch for the future. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I overlook my mistakes when proofreading. The automatic spell checker on my computer sometimes does it wrong and makes it worse. I can also make mistakes with predictions. No one can predict the future perfectly. All the maps and information are correct. The “wordy” stuff can prove difficult.
There was no editor to review my work when writing and have it ready to ship in a timely timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to correct typos when she has time. That might be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps prove that what you are reading is really mine… That’s part of my charm. #FITF
