Due to a strange quirk of the schedule, the Brewers will face an NL opponent for the first time this season in September. The Brewers and Diamondbacks will meet for the first time this season and will play all seven of this season’s games over the next 10 days.
It’s been nearly a year since these two teams last faced off, but the last meeting was one to forget. It was last year in the NL Wild Card Series, where the Diamondbacks began their run to the World Series with a 2-0 series win in Milwaukee. Arizona is once again trying to make the playoffs, although their most likely path is once again through a wild card spot. While they still have a chance in the NL West, they are five games behind the Dodgers. They currently hold the first wild card spot in the National League, but a series against the Padres (who currently hold second place) last weekend could cause chaos in that standings.
The Diamondbacks have one of the strongest offenses in all of baseball. They are second in batting average (.263), first in on-base percentage (.336) and slugging percentage (.442), fourth in home runs (191) and second in wRC+ (115). They were even stronger in the second half, leading the league in all of those categories. There is no hole in the lineup. All of their regulars are at least above-average hitters (all over 100 in wRC+ and OPS+). In September alone, they had double-digit runs in three of their 10 games, and five or more runs in eight of those.
Leading the lineup is Ketel Marte, who just returned from the injured list after missing three weeks with an ankle injury. He leads the team with a .295 batting average and has the most home runs with 31. The Diamondbacks have four players (Marte, Christian Walker, Eugenio Suarez and Joc Pederson) with over 20 home runs and two others (Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Corbin Carroll) with over 10 home runs. Carroll and Jake McCarthy are stolen base threats and both have stolen over 20 bases this year. Carroll is one home run away from joining the 20-20 club this season.
The offense is relatively healthy, with only Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno on the injured list. Gurriel Jr. is eligible to play and could return in this series, as his calf strain was not severe. Moreno still needs to work on his left adductor strain, but could be back by the end of the season, though probably not for this series.
The path to victory over the Diamondbacks could be through their pitchers. Their team ERA of 4.58 is 27th in baseball. They like their FIP a little better, with 4.08 putting them 15th in the league. In the rotation, Zac Gallen is the only starter with an ERA under 4.00. However, the Brewers will be without two of their top starters, Gallen and Brandon Pfaadt, in this series.
The bullpen has been stronger and received a huge boost just before the trade deadline with the signing of AJ Puk. Puk has served as a late-innings relief pitcher and has allowed just one run in 19 innings since joining the Diamondbacks. Justin Martinez (2.39 ERA) has moved into the closer’s role after a strong start to the season and has recorded eight saves over the last month and a half. However, he has struggled a bit lately, allowing at least one run in five of his last eight appearances. The previous closer was Paul Sewald, but he had a rough season with a 4.31 ERA. In terms of fWAR, Kevin Ginkel (2.80 ERA) has been the best pitcher in the bullpen. He has also worked primarily as a late-innings relief pitcher. Ryan Thompson (3.20 ERA) and Joe Mantiply (3.59 ERA) are the other two key relief pitchers out of the bullpen.
Probable pitchers
Friday, September 13th at 8:40 p.m.: Freddy Peralta (3.81 ERA, 4.29 FIP) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (5.83 ERA, 4.85 FIP)
After two scoreless starts to end August, Freddy Peralta has had a rough few days to start September. He’s allowed three earned runs in his last two starts and his strikeout rate has dropped quite a bit. He’s had four or fewer strikeouts in five of his last six starts and has walked at least two batters in 10 consecutive starts. His last start against the Diamondbacks was not particularly noteworthy. In Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series, he allowed four runs in five innings.
After missing two-thirds of the season with a shoulder strain, Eduardo Rodriguez makes his seventh start of the season on Friday. He signed a four-year, $80 million contract with the Diamondbacks in the offseason after playing two years with the Tigers. It’s been a rough return for him. He hasn’t even pitched until the sixth inning, despite maxing out at 100 pitches. In his last start against the Astros, he allowed five runs (four earned) in four innings.
Saturday, September 14, 7:10 p.m.: Tobias Myers (2.93 ERA, 4.10 FIP) vs. Brandon Pfaadt (4.42 ERA, 3.54 FIP)
Tobias Myers had a very good game in his last game against the Rockies. In six innings he allowed just one run (a solo home run) on four hits and one walk. He also recorded a career-high 11 strikeouts in that game. He posted a 2.63 ERA and a 3.99 FIP in the second half of the season, and while the results weren’t always spectacular, he got the job done in every start.
The Diamondbacks’ starters for games two and three of the series are familiar names for the Brewers. The first of these is Brandon Pfaadt, who started game one of the NL Wild Card Series against the Brewers last year. The Brewers got close to Pfaadt in that game, chasing him after just 2 2⁄3 innings, scoring three runs against him. After a good first half of the season, the second half has not been so kind to him. In nine starts after the All-Star break, he has a 5.40 ERA. He began the second half with seven scoreless innings against the Cubs, but he has been very hittable after that. He has allowed at least two runs in each of his last eight starts and has had only one good start during this stretch. His control is still good, as the strikeout rate is high and his walk rate is low, but he has allowed at least seven hits in seven of his last eight starts.
Sunday, September 15, 3:10 p.m.: DL Hall (4.01 ERA, 4.87 FIP) vs. Zac Gallen (3.55 ERA, 3.25 FIP)
The Brewers opted for a six-man rotation this time to give all their starters an extra day off. DL Hall will be reinstated in the rotation and will start on Sunday against the Diamondbacks. After his seven-inning scoreless start against the Reds in late August, he had two long relief appearances. He pitched four scoreless innings against the Cardinals and then 1 2⁄3 against the Giants on Monday. Hall should last several more innings, although he will probably end up with around 90 to 100 pitches.
Zac Gallen is also a familiar opponent for the Brewers. They last faced him in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series last year. After giving him two runs in the first inning, Gallen didn’t allow anything for six innings. He has been arguably the Diamondbacks’ best pitcher this season, despite missing most of June with a hamstring strain. He’s coming off two consecutive scoreless starts against the Giants and Rangers. His strikeouts have also increased, with at least seven in each of his last four starts.
forecast
The Brewers need a good balance of offense, defense, and pitching to win this series. The pitchers need to keep the Diamondbacks offense in check while hopefully the Brewers offense gets going. This series is a test of the Brewers’ playoff readiness with 10 straight games against likely playoff teams. I think the Brewers could win the entire season series against the Diamondbacks, but their chances in this series are not good. It will be very difficult to win this game.
