One team in the NFL where opinions are probably still divided is the Falcons.
Atlanta picked up its first win of the season with a game-winning touchdown drive in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter against the Eagles on Monday night.
So the team goes into Sunday night’s game against Kansas City with some momentum.
The Chiefs have to cope with the loss of their starting running back Isiah Pacheco due to a fibula injury.
Since the Chiefs have scored 3.5 points on the road, it might take some time for them to get used to playing without Pacheco.
Analysis of the Chiefs
Despite everything we’ve heard about Kansas City’s plans to move the ball down the field, the results have not been entirely convincing.
According to Pro Football Reference, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has the second fewest intended air yards per pass attempt (5.1).
Mahomes also gets rid of the ball pretty quickly and ranks second in the fewest seconds per dropback pass attempt.
Given these limitations, it is even more difficult to develop plays further down the field.
Although last season showed us that the Chiefs team should never be written off, there is something very wrong with them.
Kansas City, for example, only converts 29.4% of its third-down opportunities, compared to 43.3% in 2023.
That third-down improvement rate could drop even further now that Pacheco is out with an injury.
Falcons Analysis
The Falcons seemed determined to perform again on Monday night against the Eagles in a back-and-forth game with seven lead changes.
Atlanta managed 385 yards on offense, 159 more than in Week 1.
Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins made a much better impression in his second game after his Achilles tendon tear, completing 20 of 29 passes for 241 yards and two touchdowns.
It was also important that Cousins finished the game without losing the ball.
If the Falcons can get Cousins to play consistently at a high level, he will be the final piece of the puzzle on a team that already has a solid foundation.
Atlanta has enough quality on its roster to be competitive right away, as it ranks 13th in overall DVOA.
With Pacheco out, Atlanta may not need to bring an extra player into the box and can instead retreat into coverage to thwart the Chiefs’ passing offense.
It’s worth noting that the Falcons are already stingy in the passing game, ranking seventh with 156 yards allowed per game.
Selection Chiefs vs. Falcons
While both teams had some luck in their wins, the Chiefs know how to win close games.
Because of this experience, we have to be a little cautious when assessing Kansas City’s luck factor.
How often do we watch a game and see the opponent, not Kansas City, make the crucial mistake in the final minutes?
Betting on the NFL?
So if you want to beat the Chiefs, you probably won’t get a better opportunity than in the first half.
According to Action Network, Kansas City has a 7-0 record when it comes to leading by 2.5 points or more in the first half.
With this trend continuing on Sunday night, the Falcons are worth a look as underdogs with home odds of +2.5.
Recommendation: Falcons first half +2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Why you can bet on the New York Post
Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. In his betting career, he has won two 15-leg teasers and a 12-leg parlay that covered eight games of the Little League World Series. More recently, he has accurately picked the finalists for the 2024 Euros and the Copa America.
