The Taylor Swift effect brought new fans to America’s biggest sporting event last winter. Will the pop star’s endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris after Tuesday night’s debate translate into more votes in the biggest election of the year?
Yes, says Resonate, a data and intelligence company that analyzes trillions of online interactions. Typical polls extrapolate the mood of American voters from a few hundred or a thousand responses. The Reston, Virginia-based company uses its AI modeling system to generate its own insights on 250 million people.
According to Resonate, 2.3 million Americans in swing states are more likely to be swayed by celebrity endorsements. These people may be rethinking their voting plans because of Swift’s Instagram post endorsing Harris and calling out former President Donald Trump for an incorrect AI-generated endorsement for him.
Who has the better chance of winning? How the debate changed the chances for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump
How many voters in the constituencies could Taylor Swift influence?
Resonate defines the term “swing state” more broadly than most, but if Swift supporters in states like Florida vote for Harris, might that state become a swing state again? The company estimates that up to 667,000 Florida voters, or 29 percent of the 2.3 million, could be persuaded by Swift.
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Demographics of people influenced by Taylor Swift’s support
The more than two million voters are not all younger, female voters. Nevertheless, the majority of Americans who are more likely to support Harris and vote for her are likely to be from the millennial generation.
Will Taylor Swift make an outsized impression again?
This isn’t the first time in 2024 that Swift has had an outsized impact beyond her music, which grossed more than a billion dollars during her Eras Tour.
Her romantic relationship with Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs increased NFL game viewership among teenage girls by 8% in the 2023-24 season, according to Nielsen. The audience statistics company said her presence at Super Bowl 58 helped make the game the most-watched television broadcast of all time, with 123.4 million viewers.
So it was probably no surprise after Tuesday night’s debate that Swift’s support even moved offshore presidential betting markets. Betting on presidential elections is not legal in the US.
How Harris’ chances of winning increased during the debate
Much of Harris’s upward momentum in betting markets occurred during the debate, data from Betfair Exchange and Polymarket shows, which also showed a rise in Harris’ odds following Swift’s endorsement.
Of course, it’s much easier to watch football on TV than to register and actually vote. But another, more tangible Swift effect has already left its mark on Vote.gov.
According to the General Services Administration, Vote.gov had 405,999 visitors from Swift’s custom URL in the 24 hours after Swift posted her message on Instagram. In the week before that, the site had about 30,000 visitors per day.
Vote.gov visitors flock days after Taylor Swift’s post
Vote.gov is just a first step, however. The website does not offer voter registration, but directs visitors to their state election websites where they can learn about the process in their states.
Resonate estimates that 79 percent of the 2.3 million people who responded positively to Swift’s endorsement are registered to vote. And 828,000 people, or about 36 percent, who weren’t sure whether to vote say they’re more likely to vote.
10 groups that could influence the election, from centrists to Generation Z
Based on demographic data and voting behavior, consumer data company Resonate has identified ten voter groups that could make the difference in the 2024 general election.
Some voters want more before they side with Trump or Harris
Just because Swift has piqued the interest of these Americans doesn’t mean they’re suddenly in the Harris camp. Resonate estimates that 874,000 are still undecided and hold moderate views on tax and social issues. Some general characteristics of these 2.3 million Americans:
◾ Business: 805,000 are unsure which party they trust when it comes to jobs and the economy, and are more likely to say: “Times are tough.”
◾ Abortion: 64 percent, or 1.5 million people, agree with Harris’ stance on abortion, but many are also unsure which party they can trust.
◾ Security: Three in ten say they are concerned about crime, violence or mass shootings, as well as discrimination.
