Thanks to the nflFastR Project and NFL NextGen Stats for the current data sources.

For those of you new to this, I will be posting key QB stats each week that judge the performance of the upcoming opposing QB. Yes, O-line, receivers and plays impact these numbers, but they are primarily QB measures. I will likely change the charts as the season progresses. Comments will be brief, but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (Click on charts to enlarge)

DASHBOARD

The last opposing quarterback article I wrote was CJ Stroud in Week 18 last year, so we’ve come full circle. Not much has changed since my last analysis, but I’ll update the numbers anyway.

arsr,
IT,
opd,
sg%,
Ounces%,
%,
ttt,
adot,
yes/c,
cmp%,
cpo,
yac,
Subscribe,
ypa,
scr%,
t%,
sck%,
aa%,
Yes,
ny/d,
1.%,
td%,
To%,
epa/d,
psr

• The Texans rushing was terrible, but they are a run-first team and don’t use much shotgun (26th edp, 29th arsr, 28th sg%). I think they are passing more this year (just a guess).
• Last year, Stroud struggled with above-average pass defenses from his opponents (10th per day), which allowed him to zone defend on 78% of his snaps (5th).
• He holds the ball for a long time, although he is not put under pressure that often (4th ttt, 19th pr%).
• Stroud has all the time in the world to throw and tries to throw long passes and completes them (2nd Adot, 1st Ay/C).
• His accuracy is only average (19th CPOE), but his receivers have exceptional YAC (9th YAC, 6th YaCOE). That’s very unusual with such long completions and so much time to throw. I think he’s regressing in YAC this year.
• He responded to pressure by taking more sacks than scrambles (9th sack%, ​​17th scr%), a weakness for a mobile QB.
• However, he has not been pressured heavily, so the aborted attempts do not significantly affect his efficiency per dropback and he has the third-highest net yards per dropback.
• He is good at throwing first downs and touchdowns and avoiding turnovers, which is the triple function of a good quarterback (4th in 1st%, 10th in touchdown rate, 29th in 2nd%).

He finished with the seventh-best overall efficiency (7th epa/d), but his 15th-ranked pass completion rate suggests that some high-EPA events (e.g., explosive passes) are skewing his numbers. When attempts over 20 yards are removed from the data, his efficiency drops to 15th.

He sits in the upper right quadrant, which is where you want your QB, but I think he’ll drop back a bit this year and move more toward the middle.

HOW WELL?

He’s had a lot of extreme ups and downs, but overall he’s been good, especially in the last game against the… oh, right.

HOW FAR?

He throws the ball consistently far.

FOR WHOM?

Tank Dell will be interesting to watch this year. I expect him to close the gap on Nico Collins.

Upper right quadrant = receiver quality.

HOW EXACTLY?

One of his weaknesses has been his accuracy. He has a below average success rate on passes between 6 and 15 yards. But he’s amazing on passes over 20 yards. This is not a picture of an accurate QB hitting opponents deep. This is a not so accurate QB getting lucky on a few deep passes.

HOW FAST?

Even taking into account the depth of passing, Stroud holds the ball for a long time. I don’t think that will do him any good.

WHERE?

Those long passes are why his overall efficiency has been so good. If you take that away, he’s just OK.

. . . Can we take that away?