With five straight wins, the Phillies have returned to the top of the MLB standings with a record of 84-56. They are tied with the Dodgers in points, but have won the head-to-head matchup with the Dodgers by virtue of a 4-3 lead in the season series.
First place is very important because it gives home field advantage for the entire National League playoffs, and since the best team in the American League is 3.5 games behind the Phils and Dodgers, it will probably also give home field advantage in the World Series.
Even if they don’t finish as the No. 1 seed, the Phillies have opened up a three-game lead over the Brewers, who are now No. 2. That’s also important because the top two teams in each league receive a bye in the wild-card round. Although the Phillies have had good postseason results two years in a row after entering the wild-card round, their outfielders and pitchers could use the break this time around.
The Phils have a big series in Milwaukee from September 16-18. Any result other than a sweep of the Brewers will see the Phillies win the head-to-head matchup against them.
Phillies’ remaining schedule
The Phillies and Dodgers each have 22 games left.
The Phils have:
• 3 at the Marlins
• 3 against Rays
• 3 against Mets
• 3 at Brewers
• 4 at the Mets
• 3 last home games against the Cubs
• Last 3 away games in DC
The seven games against the Mets will be tough, as they have a lot at stake as they are tied with the Braves for the last NL wild card spot. How the Phillies fare against the Mets will determine which other NL East team makes the playoffs.
The remaining six games against the Marlins and Nationals should not be difficult. Both teams have even reduced their subpar rosters from the first half and are unable to score points or show power battles.
The Rays are also a shadow of the roster they opened the season with. Since the trade deadline, they have the winning percentage of a 69-game team and have lost nine of their last 14 games.
The Cubs’ offense has been in top form, scoring double-digit runs in six of their last 13 games, but who knows if that will still be the case three weeks from now when the teams meet at Citizens Bank Park. Their lineup started the season that way before falling into a two-month losing streak.
Remaining Dodgers schedule
The rest of the road for the Dodgers includes:
• 3 against Guardian
• 3 against Cubs
• 4 at the Braves
• 3 at the Marlins
• 3 against Rockies
• 3 against Padres
• 3 at the Rockies
The Dodgers’ next 10 games – Cleveland, the Cubs, Atlanta – will be tough. The Guardians are battling for first place in the AL, the Braves are clinging to their playoff chances, and the Cubs are the only underdog that could potentially move past the Braves and Mets for the final playoff spot.
But LA’s final 12 games look pretty easy, with nine of them against the Rockies and Marlins, two of the three worst teams in baseball.
If the Phillies are a game or two behind the Dodgers in this final two-week stretch, their chances of catching up won’t be great unless the Dodgers stumble uncharacteristically. They are human and lacking in starting pitchers, but they also have a more complete lineup than they’ve had all year, with Mookie Betts and Max Muncy healthy in addition to Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and Teoscar Hernandez. Betts and Muncy have missed all seven of the Phillies’ games against the Dodgers this season.
The race could create an interesting dynamic, as both the Phillies and Dodgers have their divisions locked down with a week to go but are still battling for the spot. The Phillies would prefer to take it easy with their starting pitchers in the final week while figuring out how to give their hitters a break without messing up their timing. Balancing that with home field advantage could be a big theme in this city in mid-September.
