We live in a world of absolutes.
When it comes to NBA legends, LeBron James is either better than Michael Jordan or he’s not even in the same stratosphere as him.
It’s no different in the NFL.
After months of preparing for another season on the football field, we can now show tangible results.
Some people might throw Week 1 out the window, call it an outlier, and say you can’t make sweeping generalizations after just one game.
I am not those people.
After all, we live in a world of absolutes.
Here are three overreactions to the opening week of the NFL regular season.
“Who has it better than us…?”
Call it an overreaction. Call it being late to the party. But I’m buying stock in Jim Harbaugh and the Los Angeles Chargers.
Harbaugh is the definition of a culture change, and that is exactly what the Chargers desperately needed.
Quarterback Justin Herbert has been in the league for five years and is already his fourth head coach.
After being a playoff team in 2022 and blowing a 27-0 lead in the wildcard round, the Chargers seemed doomed when head coach Brandon Staley was brought in for the 2023 season.
Staley lasted 14 games before being fired. He had a record of 5-9 last year and 24-24 during his tenure as head coach of the Chargers. Hitting .500 with one of the league’s top five quarterback talents is unexpected, especially when you’re supposed to be a defensive player.
But after botching the head coaching position early in Herbert’s career, the Chargers hired one of the best head coaches in the world to their staff in the offseason.
Sure, the Las Vegas Raiders are not one of the world-class teams, but there is nothing wrong with a team opening the season with a clear win within the division.
In fact, this isn’t the first time Harbaugh has taken over a non-playoff team and led them to a division win in Week 1.
The first time he did this was in 2011 with the San Francisco 49ers, whom he led to a 33-17 victory over the Seattle Seahawks at the beginning of the year. The 49ers achieved a 13-3 record that year and won the division.
While the Kansas City Chiefs continue to be the class of the AFC West, it looks like the Chargers will finally challenge them in the division this year. I’m betting that this team can find a way to get back to the playoffs under a head coach who has made the playoffs in three of the four years he’s coached in the league.
Tip: Chargers reach the playoffs +122
Bang, bang, bird gang
The Eagles are back.
If you’ve heard me say it once, you’ll hear me say it again. One of the smartest NFL minds I know is a Philadelphia Eagles fan.
In August 2022, he told me, “I haven’t thought that way about an Eagles team since the Super Bowl year.” And lo and behold, they made it to the Super Bowl.
So imagine the look on my face when he texted me after Week 1 last year: “This year is ruined. Our coordinators are going to cost us the season.”
He wasn’t wrong.
Something was wrong with the Eagles all year. The quarterback was the same, the weapons were the same, the head coach was the same, but everything felt different.
Both coordinators were fired after the team lost six of its final seven games at the end of the season, including a 32-9 loss to the Bucs in the wild-card round.
With Kellen Moore on offense and Vic Fangio on defense, the team suddenly seems alive again.
Some pieces have come and gone, but the team that reached the Super Bowl two years ago is largely still intact.
Running back Saquon Barkley’s early results seem to be good, as the 27-year-old can finally run behind a good offensive line and is no longer the focal point of a team’s defense.
Considering that no team in the NFC East has managed to repeat the division win in 18 years, it feels like Philly can only lose the division after Dallas won it last year.
I was cautiously optimistic about the Eagles at the start of this season, and after a week I can confidently say this team will reach the NFC Championship game, where they will likely face the Detroit Lions.
Tip: Eagles -140 win NFC East
With the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft….
It’s funny how quickly things change in this league.
At the beginning of the season, I rated the New England Patriots as the team most likely to finish with the worst record in the league.
I didn’t believe what new coach Jared Mayo promised and thought they would win three games at most. As it turns out, I may have underestimated what a good defense with an inspiring head coach can accomplish.
Congratulations, New England. You’re back.
The worst team in the league this year will be the New York Giants.
New York can opt out of Daniel Jones’ four-year, $160 million contract extension at the end of this season, and I believe this is his last year with the team.
The Giants are expected to be underdogs in 14 of their final 16 games this season, and if Week 1 was any indication of how the season will go, I doubt they will surprise many teams.
For the first time since 2017, Barkley was not the Giants’ starting running back in Week 1. The team suffered as a result, managing just 240 yards of offense. Last year, the opposing team exceeded that number in 15 of the 17 games against the Vikings.
The home loss to Minnesota was tough, as the rest of their schedule at MetLife Stadium will not be any easier.
In addition to the three NFC East teams, they will host the Cincinnati Bengals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts.
For each of these teams, New York is the must-win game, and I don’t think they’ll win more than one of them.
The schedule isn’t any easier on the road.
They travel to their three division rivals and also visit Cleveland, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Atlanta.
The road game with the best chance of winning seems to be Week 10 when they play as the away team on neutral ground against the Carolina Panthers.
Speaking of the Panthers: At +260 they are the favorites in this market.
Carolina was crushed 47-10 in Week 1, another sign of a long season ahead. But with a first-year head coach and second-year quarterback, I think Carolina will try to finish the season solidly while New York struggles to finish.
Tip: Worst record of the New York Giants in the NFL +600
