The Royals and Tigers both battled for the division in 2014 and began rebuilding in 2017-18. Neither team has had a winning season since then, but that will likely change this year, as the Royals have been baseball’s surprise turnaround and the Tigers have been one of the best teams in baseball’s second half this year. In fact, both the Royals and Tigers have a 30-23 record since the All-Star Game – only the Astros have a better record in the American League during that time.

Detroit Tigers (77-73) vs. Kansas City Royals (82-68) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Tigers: 4.23 runs scored/game (17th in MLB), 4.00 runs allowed/game (6th)

Royals: 4.73 runs scored/game (10th), 4.04 runs allowed/game (7th)

The Tigers have really hit their stride in the last month. They were below .500 at the trade deadline and traded outfielder Mark Canha, starting pitcher Jack Flaherty and reliever Andrew Chafin. They fell to 55-63 on Aug. 10, but have since won 22 of 32 games and are now within 2.5 games of the final playoff spot.

The Royals have been strong this year, winning seven of 10 meetings, including a sweep at Kauffman Stadium in May. The Tigers have been a solid road team this year, finishing 38-37.

Only seven teams have hit fewer home runs than the Tigers, and only two teams have a lower on-base percentage. The Tigers are hitting .266/.333/.470 with runners in scoring position, the fifth-best OPS in those situations.

The Tigers have played much better since recovering. Parker Meadows has a batting average of .297/.342/.536 with 5 home runs in 35 games since returning from injury. Kerry Carpenter has a batting average of .286/.347/.593 with 7 home runs in 26 games since returning. Riley Greene hit two home runs on Sunday and has a batting average of .327/.393/.653 with four home runs in 13 games this month.

Spencer Torkelson is hitting just .201/.254/.305 away from home this year. Justyn-Henry Malloy is hitting left-handed and batting .293/.420/.585 against lefties. Colt Keith is fifth among American League rookies with 1.9 fWAR. Only five teams have stolen fewer bases than the Tigers, but only two teams have intercepted fewer bases. Riley Greene has been an excellent defender in the outfield and Jake Rogers has been solid behind the plate.

The Tigers are expected to return Reese Olson to the field on Monday after he missed a month with a shoulder strain. In four career starts against the Royals, he has a 2.53 ERA but has never beaten them, posting an 0-2 record. Right-handers are hitting just .220/.254/.301 against him this year. He has the fifth-highest groundball rate for pitchers with at least 100 innings at 51.2 percent, relying heavily on his slider.

Casey Mize allowed six runs on nine hits in less than two innings during his last visit to Kauffman Stadium in May. He has allowed 11 runs in 16 innings in his three starts since returning from a hamstring injury. He has a 5.05 ERA on the road, with opponents hitting .308/.362/.473. Opponents are hitting .300 with his 95 mph four-seamer, and he also throws a slider, splitter, sinker and knucklecurve.

Tarik Skubal is the leading candidate for the Cy Young Award, leading the American League in fWAR (5.4), rWAR (5.9), wins (16), ERA (2.50), FIP (2.56) and strikeouts (214). He has allowed four or more runs in a start just six times this year, twice in losses to the Royals. Left-handed hitters are hitting just .185/.239/.250 against Skubal this year. He has the second-best strikeout-to-walk ratio in baseball and the seventh-lowest home run rate. He throws a 96.9 mph fastball to set up a changeup that has a 46.8 percent whiff rate and mixes a sinker, slider and curve.

The Tigers’ bullpen has a 3.61 ERA (3.00 since the All-Star break) — the fifth-best in baseball overall. They have been successful despite having the fourth-lowest strikeout rate because they have the lowest walk rate. They have the lowest rate of runners taken on that they have allowed to score.

Closer Jason Foley has converted 23 of 26 save opportunities and has an ERA of 0.98 in 18 ¹⁄₃ innings since the beginning of August with an opponents’ batting average of .131. Tyler Holton has allowed just two earned runs in 44 innings. ²⁄₃ innings since early July with a 0.40 ERA. Veteran reliever Sean Guenther allowed one run in his season debut with the Tigers but hasn’t let anyone home in 10 games since then. Shelby Miller has a 5.52 ERA since early August and the 15th-highest home run rate among qualified relievers.

The Tigers are in good shape with a young lineup, solid starting pitching and a shutdown bullpen over the last month. It may be too little, too late, but if the Twins continue to struggle, the Tigers could be a surprise team in the playoffs. At the very least, they are a team hungry for a win that will give the Royals everything they have in the final home game of the season.