Jessica Pegula reached her first Grand Slam final after defeating Karolína Muchová in three sets 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 on Thursday.
Before the semifinals, Pegula had not dropped a set in her five previous matches at the US Open, and her straight-sets 6-2, 6-4 quarterfinal victory over world No. 1 Iga Świątek was impressive.
She will now face the second-ranked player in the world in the final when she takes on Aryna Sabalenka on Saturday afternoon. The Belarusian reached the final by defeating Emma Navarro 6-3, 7-6.
While Sabalenka is known for her strength, Pegula benefits from hard court, her best surface (67%).
The crowd could also play a big role in the game, as they will likely cheer on Pegula, a New York native and daughter of Buffalo Bills owners Terry and Kim Pegula.
With Sabalenka considered the favorite by 4.5 games, she will have to beat more than just her opponent to win by a large margin.
Pegula goes into the final with confidence
It has been a memorable tournament for Pegula so far, as she also reached a Grand Slam semifinal for the first time in her career.
After losing the first set and trailing by a break in the second set, she could have easily given up, but she fought back and took the win.
The first set was probably a little nervous, but Pegula quickly found her game. She started using both sides of the court, which forced Muchová to put more energy into chasing balls.
One of Pegula’s strengths is her fearlessness in using different strategies. Against Świątek, she constantly struck her body, which made it even more difficult for her opponent to return the shot.
In both games, Pegula effortlessly played long rallies and waited for her opponent to make the first mistake.
This strategy underlines her confidence in her current form, which could undoubtedly be decisive against a hard-hitting player like Sabalenka.
How will Sabalenka deal with the aggressive style?
Sabalenka’s power often dictates her game as she uses her strong serve to put pressure on her opponent.
The two-time Grand Slam champion generally wants to get points over with quickly in order to get back on serve. Sabalenka is also likely to take risks by going for winners with her forehand.
The biggest challenge against Pegula will be to keep her aggression under control. For example, although Sabalenka hit 34 winners against Navarro, she also made 34 unforced errors.
This is the eighth meeting between the two players and Sabalenka has a 5-2 lead. However, three of her victories have come on clay, which Sabalenka believes may suit her game better than playing on hard courts.
Some people say she cleverly uses the surface to give her racket more spin and thus hit the ball further away from her opponents.
Sabalenka’s shots are much purer on hard court, which could allow Pegula to participate in more rallies.
Pegula vs. Sabalenka tip
Pegula may want to watch the video of Coco Gauff’s surprise victory over Sabalenka in the US Open final last year, in which the Belarusian made 46 unforced errors and six double faults.
Pegula’s movements on the court were impressive and she clearly got stronger as the match against Muchová went on.
If this match goes into a third set, all the pressure will be on Sabalenka to try to finish it off.
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There is nothing worse than trying to finish a Grand Slam match when almost the entire stadium is against you.
As a result, Pegula is more than capable of converting some break chances to keep the match within 4.5 games.
Best bet: Jessica Pegula +4.5 games (-125, DraftKings)
