Tropical Depression 7, Invest 94L, Southeast Coast System. Tropical Update

The National Hurricane Center is tracking three systems in the Atlantic basin as the remnants of Francine continue to move north, according to the latest warning.

The remnants of today’s post-tropical cyclone Francine are bringing heavy rainfall and the threat of flash flooding to parts of the Tennessee Valley and the Southeast this morning.

Francine made landfall in Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana, on Wednesday night as a Category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of nearly 100 mph.

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Meteorologists are also observing elsewhere in the Atlantic basin:

Tropical Depression Seven in the Eastern Atlantic
Invest 94L near the Northern Leeward Islands
Disturbance a few hundred miles off Florida and the southeastern United States

Here is the latest update from the NHC as of September 13 at 8:00 a.m. EDT:

Tropical Depression 7 could become Tropical Storm Gordon today

Location: 955 miles west-northwest of Cape Verde
Maximum sustained winds: 35 miles per hour
Movement: West-Northwest at 14 miles per hour
Pressure: 1007mb

What you should know about Tropical Depression 7

At 5:00 a.m. AST, the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 19.0 degrees north and longitude 38.2 degrees west.

The low pressure system is moving towards the west-northwest at about 22.5 km/h. A turn to the west is expected this evening, with the system gradually weakening over the weekend.

➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression 7

Maximum sustained winds will be 35 mph, with stronger gusts.

The low pressure area could develop into a tropical storm later in the day, but overall only minor changes in its strength are expected for the weekend.

Spaghetti Models for Tropical Depression Seven

Special note on spaghetti models: Spaghetti models encompass a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all of them are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the four or five best performing models for its forecasts.

Will Tropical Depression 7 hit Florida, USA?

Tropical Depression Seven is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Gordon today, but the system is not expected to impact the United States, according to Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane forecaster.

“It’s not going to bother anyone, except maybe shipping,” DaSilva said in a phone interview Thursday. “It will stay in the Atlantic and pose no threat to the United States.”

What else is there and how likely is it that there will be an increase?

Off the coast of the southeastern United States over the western Atlantic: This weekend, a non-tropical low pressure system could form along a frontal boundary several hundred kilometers off the southeastern coast of the United States.

Subtropical or tropical development is then possible during the first half of next week as the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast.

Probability of occurrence within 48 hours: low, close to 0 percent.
Probability of occurrence within 7 days: low, 30 percent.

Invest 94L, East of the Leeward Islands: Surface observations indicate that a small low pressure system is located over the northern Leeward Islands. The system continues to produce showers and thunderstorms this morning, but they are no better organized.

Environmental conditions, including the proximity of dry air, are not conducive to the development of this system as it moves west-northwestward at about 24 km/h. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over the northern Leeward Islands today.

Probability of occurrence within 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
Probability of occurrence within 7 days: low, 20 percent.

Could the system northeast of Florida affect your weekend?

The system off the southeast coast of the United States could be strengthened by the remnants of Francine, but no direct impacts on Florida are expected over the weekend and early next week.

The system has the potential to develop into a named storm. The earliest that such a storm could develop is Sunday, and then it would move inland Monday night or Tuesday.

“There may be increased swell, rough surf and currents, especially in North Florida, but nothing direct,” DaSilva said.

What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

The hatched areas on a tropical map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone – that is, a tropical depression, a tropical storm or a hurricane – could develop,” said Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.

The colors indicate how likely the development of a system could be: yellow stands for a low probability, orange for a medium probability and red for a high probability.

The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue tropical warnings until there is a named storm, but there is one exception.

“If a system is close to land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait to issue warnings, even if the system has not yet developed into a full-blown storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

What is an investment?

The National Hurricane Center uses the term “investigation” to refer to low-pressure areas that it monitors for possible development into a tropical depression or storm.

Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They are usually collections of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they have been designated as invests is no guarantee that they will develop into a tropical cyclone.

Investments range from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the Eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts again and the next investment would be 90.

Once something has been designated as an investment, development of specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including planning Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models.

Who is likely to be affected?

While Tropical Depression 7 is not expected to reach Florida or the U.S., the system off the southeast coast could bring rough surf and rip currents to northern Florida early next week, DaSilva said.

Direct impacts are expected in northern parts of South Carolina and North Carolina from Sunday through Tuesday. Possible impacts include: coastal flooding and erosion, 2 to 4 inches of rain, and winds of 40 to 50 mph along coastal areas.

It is currently too early to assess whether Invest 94L will have an impact on Florida or the United States.

Meteorologists urge all residents to continue to monitor the tropics and stay prepared. This advice is especially important during what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.

Weather observations and warnings issued in Florida

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30.

The Atlantic Basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Stay informed. Receive weather alerts via SMS

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season is September 10, with peak activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

National Hurricane Center map: What are meteorologists paying attention to now?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

Interactive map: Hurricanes and tropical storms that have passed near your city

Heavy rainfall forecast

What happens next?

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