NEW ORLEANS (WVUE) – The National Hurricane Center advises that possible tropical development is expected in the northwestern Caribbean during the last week of September.
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Models indicate that a tropical system will emerge next week, which will be of particular interest in the northern Gulf of Mexico.
This tropical wave would be caused by a seasonal low-pressure circulation over Central America that forms each year at the end of spring and beginning of fall and is called the Central American Gyre (CAG).
The CAG can cause flooding and rainfall in Central America, and smaller low-pressure systems can split off the larger circulation, leading to tropical developments in the Caribbean, Gulf, and eastern Pacific.
Systems that form away from the CAG can be difficult to predict because models cannot accurately determine the location of the storm center until a wave or low pressure area forms.
For this reason, there are large model uncertainties regarding the final trajectory and strength of the tropical system.
In October, the control pattern tends to be more towards the eastern Gulf. This is due to the cold fronts that are gathering in the southeast.
The timing of the appearance of these fronts as well as the positioning of the high pressure areas in the upper layers of the atmosphere help determine the final trajectory of a tropical system over the Gulf.
The long-term pattern for next week exhibits these characteristics, so we will continue to monitor model trends as the forecast develops.
The development is most likely to take place at the end of this weekend or early next week.
Residents of the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the weather forecast through the weekend.
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