CNN
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Tropical Storm Francine is expected to form in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and make landfall as a hurricane along the western U.S. Gulf Coast later this week, as the season finally emerges from its strange, quiet stupor.

The disorganized system raged early Monday morning several hundred kilometers from the Mexico-Texas border in the record-warm western Gulf of Mexico. It already has tropical storm-force winds of 50 mph with stronger gusts, but is not yet a tropical storm because these winds do not flow tightly around a defined center.

Instead, the National Hurricane Center has classified the hurricane as a “potential tropical cyclone six” – a classification given to systems that have not yet fully organized but will pose dangers to land within 48 hours.

Flooding, rainfall, strong winds and a dangerous storm surge are possible along the western Gulf Coast this week.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect from parts of the northeast coast of Mexico to the south Texas coast early this week. Additional warnings are expected to be issued on Monday and Tuesday.

The brewing storm in the Gulf follows a rare quiet period in the Atlantic, where no named storms have formed since Ernesto in mid-August during some of the stormiest weeks of the hurricane season.

Tropical Storm Francine will strengthen once it forms and move northward across the record-warm Gulf of Mexico early this week. The system could become a hurricane as early as Tuesday evening a few hundred miles east of the Texas coast.

Tropical storm-force winds could reach parts of far northeastern Mexico and far southern Texas by Tuesday. Before then, storm surge and rough surf could cause minor flooding along the Mexican coast earlier this week.

The storm’s heaviest rains and winds are likely to begin later this morning, but storm surge concerns will increase across the U.S. as the system strengthens and approaches landfall, possibly late Wednesday evening.

It’s too early to say exactly where the system will come ashore on the western Gulf Coast and how strong it will be at that point. Forecast models can’t paint a reliable picture of its trajectory until it forms a circulation center, so the forecast should be more reliable later on Monday.

Currently, forecasts suggest that the hurricane could reach the Louisiana coast. However, everyone between Texas and Louisiana should begin the necessary preparations and make sure they have a hurricane plan in place.

Regardless, heavy rains are expected, especially in coastal areas of northwestern Mexico on Monday. The system’s heavy rains could also reach extreme southern Texas on Monday before reaching more parts of the western Gulf Coast on Tuesday.

Tropical downpours from the system will bring 4 to 8 inches of rain this week from far northeastern Mexico to parts of coastal Texas and southern Louisiana. Totals could reach as much as 12 inches in areas suffering sustained downpours. Across the region, 2 to 4 inches of rain are more likely.

Texas will see most of the heavy rains early this week, but Louisiana may see the heaviest rains late into Tuesday night.

Tropical rains could lead to a “significant” risk of flash flooding, according to the NHC.

According to the Weather Prediction Center, there is a Level 3 to 4 flood risk for Wednesday across much of Louisiana and parts of southern Mississippi.

CNN Meteorologists Gene Norman, Elisa Raffa, Allison Chinchar and Ashley R. Williams contributed to this report.