Zebby Matthews and Gavin Williams will be on the mound for their respective teams tonight, which is good news for the batters because these pitchers are awful.
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The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians play the second leg of a four-game series tonight at Progressive Field.
Cleveland beat Minnesota 4-3 last night, but my predictions for the Twins vs. Guardians game on September 17th predict a higher-scoring encounter this time around.
Here are my free MLB picks for this AL Central showdown.
Prediction for Twins vs. Guardians
My best bet
First five innings Over 4.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Minnesota Twins will send rookie Zebby Matthews to the mound tonight. Matthews has a 7.11 ERA with a .325 OBA in six starts, and he’s struggled at the Triple-A level as well… posting a 5.68 ERA in four games.
The Cleveland Guardians will counter with sophomore RHP Gavin Williams. Williams has a 5.23 ERA through 14 starts and ranks in the bottom fifth percentile in exit velocity and bottom 15th percentile in hard hit rate. He’s been even worse lately, pitching to a 6.44 ERA and allowing an .813 OPS in eight starts since early August.
Both lineups have slowed down a bit since the All-Star break, but were top-10 offenses in the first half of the season and I expect them to return to form today against mediocre starters.
Since the Guardians have the best bullpen in the major leagues, avoid the entire game score total and instead opt for Over 4.5 in the first five innings.
Twins vs Guardians – Accumulator bet on the same game (SGP)
First five innings Over 4.5
Byron Buxton Over 1.5 total bases
Josh Naylor over 0.5 RBI
Byron Buxton has gone 3-of-10 with four RBIs in three games since returning from the IL. The 2022 All-Star leads the Twins with a .530 slugging percentage and has excellent reverse platoon splits, posting an .876 OPS against right-handers like Williams.
Josh Naylor has a slugging average of .245/.323/.459 and is seventh in the major leagues with 103 RBI. He’s better at home with a slugging average of .498 and he’ll also have the platoon advantage against Matthews.
The batter has a good chance of scoring a run either against Matthews or against the struggling Minnesota team, which has been second to last in ERA (5.23) since the All-Star break.
Learn how to bet on the same game in an accumulator bet with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Guardians odds
Twins vs Guardians live odds
Opening odds for Twins vs. Guardians
- Money line: Minnesota +105 | Cleveland -125
- Execute line: Minnesota +1.5 (-200) | Cleveland -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Twins vs Guardians Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis
- Early money was placed on the Guardians and the Under, moving the line to Cleveland -140 and dropping the total to 8.0.
- The Guardians lead the AL Central with a record of 87-64 and have won six of their last eight games.
- The Twins have finished 4-9 in their last 13 games and their record for the year is 79-71.
- Since the All-Star break, Minnesota ranks 16th in the majors in OPS (.716), while Cleveland ranks just 26th (.674).
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Gemini vs. Guardian Trend
The Twins have over-achieved the game total in 48 of their last 84 games (+14.20 units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Guardians here.
Twins vs Guardians Match Info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio |
| Date: | Tuesday, 17.9.2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSNO, BSGL |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Zebby Matthews (1-3, 7.11 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Gavin Williams (3-9, 5.23 ERA) |
Twins vs Guardians: Latest Injuries
Twins vs Guardians Weather
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