Vladimir Putin will feel “angry and possibly humiliated” by Ukraine’s surprise invasion of Kursk, says Military analyst Sean Bell.
Despite Ukraine’s ambitions, he will not accept any negotiations over the occupied territories and will instead deal with the matter “ruthlessly,” Bell said.
But at present, Putin has two options: either he plays into Ukraine’s agenda and reinforces the defense of Kursk with some of his elite units from the front line in Donbass, or he moves fresh troops up from the Lithuanian border and from Crimea.
“But none of these soldiers are battle-hardened. And you only have to look back at World War II. Back then, the blitzkrieg worked because there were battle-hardened soldiers,” Bell said.
“They will be no match for the Ukrainian forces, which are on the offensive.”
He continued: “Ukraine probably didn’t expect to get this far. They deployed a thousand soldiers and probably twenty tanks and then found that they could invade with almost no resistance. They took advantage of that.”
Ukraine has two options: it can either try to hold parts of the Kursk Line and risk defeat there, or ultimately withdraw. Putin will then have to guess which section of Russia’s longer border will be hit next and reinforce that section to relieve pressure on the front line, Bell explained.
“It seems like an absolute stroke of genius,” the analyst said.
“At the front, dynamism and initiative are important, and they used that. They showed that Russia does not have everything under control at the front. And just imagine the impact on the morale of the troops at the front.”
However, it must be remembered that Kyiv has captured only 0.003 percent of Russian territory, compared to the 20 percent of Ukraine controlled by Moscow, he added.
“Although people are talking about it being a bargaining chip in some kind of negotiations, I think that’s very unlikely. Putin is not going to accept any kind of negotiation on something like that. He’s going to deal with it. He’s going to deal with it ruthlessly. The question is when, and when will he ease the pressure on the front?”
