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US Open final analysis: Aryna Sabalenka beats Jessica Pegula and takes revenge for 2023 final


US Open final analysis: Aryna Sabalenka beats Jessica Pegula and takes revenge for 2023 final

Follow the live coverage of the US Open final here

NEW YORK – Aryna Sabalenka defeated Jessica Pegula 7-5, 7-5 in the final of the US Open at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center on Saturday.

Number 2 prevailed against number 6 Seeds in a a close, exciting match full of twists and turns and key moments. Pegula put Sabalenka under serious pressure, but the Belarusian overcame that – and the scars of last year’s loss to Coco Gauff at Arthur Ashe Stadium – to take the match and the title.

For Sabalenka, it is her first US Open title and her third Grand Slam title overall. She is the only player to hold two Grand Slam titles simultaneously this year, having won the Australian Open in January.

The athletics Authors Charlie Eccleshare and Matt Futterman analyze the final and its significance for tennis.


How could Pegula’s return upset her opponent so much – until she didn’t?

Before the match, Sabalenka was particularly concerned about the hostile crowd and Pegula’s ability to assert himself and bring the returns back into play.

In the first set, those two fears combined. Pegula delivered a highly effective return performance and the crowd enjoyed it as she exploited her energy. The combination seriously unbalanced Sabalenka and the Belarusian led 5-2 before narrowly escaping a 5-6 deficit.

Pegula had been serving well all match – breaking in the third game – when Sabalenka came out to serve for the set at 5-3. Not only did the American No. 6 return serves that would have won Sabalenka a point against pretty much any other player, she returned them well with height and spin to the back of the court, forcing Sabalenka to overdo her first shots.

Eventually the pressure paid off, helped by a crowd that swelled from murmurs to roars every time Pegula forced a break point: first when the previous point was over, and then again when Sabalenka stepped to the line. The +1 serve – hitting a serve and then winning the point with the next shot – is one of Sabalenka’s strongest weapons, but having to beat so many clearly had an effect on her.

She double-faulted and then missed a couple of +1 shots, earning the break. In the first set, 11 of the 23 (48 percent) of the service points lost by Sabalenka were +1 shots.


Jessica Pegula was able to force Aryna Sabalenka’s serve to make errors on the first shot (Luke Hales / Getty Images)

In her next service game at 5-5, Sabalenka committed two more double faults, hitting her racket four times after her first serve and landing near the baseline on her second serve.

In both cases, the crowd went wild. A break for Pegula would have cost her serve for the set and sent Sabalenka reeling, as happened in last year’s final against an American player. Instead, Sabalenka broke serve, and her reaction underscored what an important moment it was.

Pegula lost the set in the next game 7-5, but had created an excellent chance to win it by eliminating any insecurities her opponent might have had in the second set with such a good return.

Charlie Eccleshar


How did Sabalenka use her new tennis tools to win the match?

In a close match, each tennis player must decide when to deviate from Plan A and try something new. The idea is to lure the opponent out of their comfort zone, but it can be just as uncomfortable for the player making the change.

This decision is full of opportunities and dangers. Leaving the comfort zone, even for a single point, is an admission that what is tried and tested either does not work or is not enough. If the risk does not pay off, the player exposes herself to criticism for not resorting to the strongest side of her arsenal in the decisive moments.

For Sabalenka, those moments came in the 12th game of the first set, when she tried to reach the halfway point after missing a golden opportunity on serve for the first set at 5-3.

At 6-5 and with Pegula serving, she put the American under pressure. Sabalenka collected set points while Pegula desperately tried to force a tiebreak.


Aryna Sabalenka let go of her powerful game at crucial moments and it worked (Angela Weiss / AFP via Getty Images)

What’s a power player to do? Sabalenka’s answer on Saturday was to pull the strings. She worked all last offseason to develop a more balanced game so that when the overpowering shots get out of control – like today – she has more tools to use. Drop shots, volleys, flat, cutting approach shots.

Late in that crucial game, she decided to open the toolbox and see what might be useful.

A soft, short slice from inside the baseline, normally her attacking zone, brought Pegula to the net and gave Sabalenka the chance to play a forehand passing shot down the line and hold it until the last moment. Moments later, Sabalenka surged in and hit a difficult flat volley behind Pegula that kept her in the match.

And then came the drop shot on her fourth set point. Pegula, who was stuck deep to defend herself against the blast, had no chance.

When Sabalenka had to create chances out of a difficult situation in her match against Coco Gauff a year ago, she had no other answer than to keep hitting.

She worked for months to ensure that something like this never happens again. On Saturday in New York, her work paid off.

Matt Futterman


Sabalenka survives scarring from 2023

Sabalenka could establish herself as a trademark of “Not this time”.

When the Coco Gauff train hit the ground running last year, Sabalenka was powerless to stop it and Gauff didn’t budge at all.

Pegula will probably have some sleepless nights in the 10th game of the second set after practically everything went wrong for Sabalenka for over half an hour.

Pegula, who was just one point away from a 0-4 deficit, served for the second set at 5-4 after playing excellent tennis and winning five of the previous six games.

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“Not this time.”

Suddenly Pegula’s shots lost some of their power and Sabalenka took advantage of the opportunity. She hit a backhand volley and built up the pressure to 0:30. Then she saw Pegula make the backhand error on a rally ball and not her. Then the stab in the back – a winning goal to make it 5:5.

She didn’t lose another game.


A story with two reactions for Sabalenka?

After last year, keeping her emotions under control was key for this match and some of Sabalenka’s reactions to forehand winners showed that she herself had a journey to take in this competition. Early in the first set, Pegula had a point on her serve to level at 2-2, which Sabalenka won with a crashing forehand crosscourt that flew past her opponent. She let out a whoop of joy and vented her frustration at losing her serve in the previous game and feeling like she was not quite there yet.


Aryna Sabalenka hit a fiery forehand winner to avoid a 3-1 deficit against Jessica Pegula (Timothy A. Clary / AFP via Getty Images)

Late in the second set, Sabalenka secured another break with a forehand winner – this time down the line and more decisive. That took the game 5-4 and Pegula served out, taking the match to a third set. This time there was no great reaction from Sabalenka, who instead went back to the line and prepared to serve in the next game. The roar was what she needed at the beginning to get going; now she needed to calm down and focus. Given the circumstances, this was an exceptionally mature, emotional performance from Sabalenka.

Charlie Eccleshar


What did Aryna Sabalenka say after the final?

On the pitch: “I finally got this beautiful trophy, it means a lot to me, it was two very difficult weeks.

“I’m sure you’ll get one someday – well, not one, maybe more,” she said to Pegula.

“I remembered all the heavy defeats here in the past,” said Sabalenka.

“If you keep working hard and sacrifice everything for a dream, one day you will achieve it. I’m super proud of myself, I never say that.”


What did Jessica Pegula say after the finale?

On the pitch: “It’s been an incredible month to be here in my first Grand Slam final,” said the American.

“I wish you had at least given me one set,” she said to Sabalenka.

In their press conference:

About friends who come to watch her: “They know what it’s like. Maybe they’ve been faking it or maybe they understand now that we don’t live a normal life. And since I missed so many things, it’s really cool for them to come in and see why. That’s why.”

About the atmosphere: “I think it was even louder with the roof closed. It was a really cool atmosphere, a really cool experience. Of course, at some point I tried to take it all in.”


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(Top photo: Kirsty Wigglesworth / Associated Press)

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