With the VMAs just around the corner, it’s time to wrap up our predictions and analysis with the two biggest categories of the night. The Artist of the Year award was given to some of the most influential artists of the century, such as Bad Bunny, ArianaGrande And Ed Sheeran. As for Video of the Year, the show’s highest award, it is one of the highest honors in the music industry, honoring iconic visuals from recent years, such as Beyonce, Rihanna, Madonna And Green Dayamong many other legends.
Artist of the Year
There are good reasons to believe that this is a race between three Sabrina Carpenter, Taylor Swiftand Ariana Grande. I think Grande will do better in other categories since her hype is more focused on her video for “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love)” than her overall artistic achievement, so I’m ruling her out first. Between Swift and Carpenter, I think it should definitely go to the latter. She’s had a bigger year and hasn’t won this award yet, which is important because we’ve never seen anyone repeat for the title since the category was introduced in 2017.
Of course, if anyone could break that record, it’s Swift. She’s also had a strong year with her blockbuster album, The Tortured Poets Department, although Carpenter’s Short n’ Sweet has since come out on top. Since the vote took place at the height of Carpenter’s era and she was just so ubiquitous, I predict she’ll win the award, especially since MTV probably wants to shake things up a bit after last year’s Swift hype.
Video of the Year
Listen, it’s very likely that the VMAs will become “The Taylor Show” again. Swift has an avid fan base and while “The Tortured Poets Department” may not have captured the zeitgeist like “Midnights” did, I’m sure MTV would still love to focus all the attention on Swiftie. So don’t be surprised if Swift and Post Malone‘s “Two Weeks”.
Still, I think there are two people here who could give Swift a run for her money. The most obvious is Grande for “We Can’t Be Friends.” She has a sizable fanbase of her own, and unlike “Fortnight,” her nominated video here is popular beyond her core fans, especially because it’s so emotional. That could play a big role in attracting votes from regular people who aren’t dedicated to just one fanbase, and give Grande, who has never taken home this award before, a win.
Swift’s second major competitor is rap legend Eminem with his controversial “Houdini.” While Eminem seems too much of a veteran to win against younger, more contemporary artists, his fan base is both young and old, which could help him a lot. Plus, the rapper stands out as the only male and only non-pop artist on the lineup, which could prevent a vote split.
I’m here for Swift, but Grande is a close second, as I imagine the VMAs will want to switch things up. If Swift wins, it will be her third win in a row (and fifth overall), which might be too much even for MTV. Plus, Grande would be a treat for them to win, especially amid the release of her new album and upcoming film, Wicked.
