It looked like the safest game of the first season. Eagles at Saints, total score set at 49.5. Yards projected, points expected. Settle in for three hours and watch them score.

Of course, it’s a snow globe league. The variance hurts. Some results aren’t satisfactory and some results don’t make much sense.

The Eagles came away with a 15-12 victory on Sunday, and it was a fair result. Philadelphia dominated the game, gaining 460 yards to the Saints’ 219. It’s amazing that this game was uncertain for three hours.

At least the performance was channeled to most of the key fantasy players. Saquon Barkley scored both Philly touchdowns and ran for 147 yards on the ground, making up for his game-ending drop on Monday against the Falcons. Barkley also had four short pass catches and a run that yielded two scores.

It’s only an hour and a half from the Giants’ headquarters to the Eagles’ headquarters, but Barkley lives in a different world in 2024. As we went to press this week, he was sitting comfortably on the court as the RB1.

Although Jalen Hurts threw for 311 yards, he lost a fumble, threw an interception, had four sacks and failed to score a touchdown. He also didn’t run much, limiting himself to 25 yards. Hurts won’t be a top-12 fantasy QB this week. The Eagles were able to dust off Dallas Goedert and unleash him for a shocking 10-170-0 line (11 targets), but it hurt to lose DeVonta Smith (concussion) in the middle of a productive second-half game. Philadelphia’s passing game isn’t the same without AJ Brown, and there would be the potential for a low point if both Brown and Smith missed time together.

Hey, at least the Eagles won the game. New Orleans’ offense, darlings of the NFL for two weeks, was brought back down to earth. The Saints managed just 12 first downs and struggled to produce chunk plays.

The Saints relied on Alvin Kamara, giving him 26 carries and three catches. He didn’t make it into the end zone, but 127 total yards makes for a credible fantasy play. Keep an eye on New Orleans’ offensive line, which was banged up in this loss. Chris Olave caught all six of his passes, giving him 86 yards and a touchdown. A point for all of America, as Olave was a universal recommendation in the fantasy world this week.

Rashid Shaheed didn’t make a single catch on his five attempts, although one of them was nearly a touchdown, a pass thrown a little short by Derek Carr. It was that kind of day for Carr, who completed just 14 of 25 passes for 142 yards, a measly 5.7 per attempt. After two weeks of playing pinball, the Saints were on the edge in this matchup.

Both teams could have exciting showings in Week 4 – the Saints travel to Atlanta while the Eagles visit the Buccaneers. On paper, these are exciting matchups, but nothing is guaranteed in this numbers game we’re playing.

Some other booms and busts in the early stages of the stock markets:

Colts rely on Taylor as Richardson struggles again

Jonathan Taylor was a bit player in the Week 2 loss at Green Bay, but the Colts got it right on Sunday. Taylor managed 23 carries for 110 yards and two touchdowns and carried the offense on a day when Anthony Richardson struggled mightily (two interceptions, just 24 rushing yards). The Colts threw just 20 passes and all of their wideouts were fantasy disappointments; none had more than five faceoff targets.

Darnold continues redemption story

At the start of the year, all we wanted was for Sam Darnold to play well so we could add Justin Jefferson to the roster and feel good about it. But Darnold looks like a fantasy star all on his own. Darnold threw four touchdowns and didn’t have a single turnover as the Vikings steamrolled the Texans. Jefferson (6-81-1) led the way, but Aaron Jones, Jalen Nailor and Johnny Mundt also caught touchdowns.

Stroud remains silent despite loss

CJ Stroud managed 6.9 YPA on the other side, but Houston’s offense was held back by sacks (four) and interceptions (two). At least Houston’s passing game stayed centered where we like it, as Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell combined for 28 targets, 19 catches and 242 yards. Cam Akers did little as a running back streamer, but did grab some deodorant from a short touchdown catch.

Willis gets revenge

Coaching is important, man. Kevin O’Connell is doing a great job with Darnold in Minnesota, and what has Matt LaFleur done with two weeks of Malik Willis? The Packers won easily at Tennessee, and Willis was very good against his former team, completing 13 of 19 passes for 202 yards and a touchdown (that’s 10.6 YPA), while also rushing for 73 yards and a touchdown.

Willis only joined the Packers shortly before the season – that’s a miracle.

Hopkins only bright spot for Titans

Tony Pollard was surrounded by the Green Bay defense (29 total yards), but DeAndre Hopkins was finally able to impress in the new season (6-73-1). Will Levis continues to make mistakes, throwing two interceptions and taking eight sacks.

note: I will post further analysis on Week 3 later today.