The box office podium

Forecast of the top 3 films at the domestic box office | 6 – 8 September 2024

Week 36 | 6 – 8 September 2024
Top 10 3-Day Range | Weekend 36, 2024: $145M – $185M

1. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Warner Bros. | NEW
Weekend range: $115-145 million
Showtime market share: 36%

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• For three weekends, the firewall was Dead Pool/Foreigner/It ends with us remains unbroken (although the actual figures from Monday finally It ends with us at number 5 this week). Apparently we only had to say “Beetlejuice” twice to break this streak, as Warner Bros. prepares for the splashy debut of Beetlejuice Beetlejuicethe highly anticipated follow-up to director Tim Burton’s hit 1988 ghost comedy. So far, the film has received solid reviews, with an 81% on Rotten Tomatoes, following a successful early debut at the Venice Film Festival and an even earlier press conference (a sign of confidence from the studio). Although more reviews are still to come in from Tuesday’s screenings, the positive reception has been enough to raise expectations for a $100 million-plus opening weekend.

• Another holistic advantage of the second Beetlejuice with a box office take of over $100 million next weekend will single-handedly push the total box office receipts back into the nine-figure range, after two weak weekends in which the returning titles were at $80 million. With the exception of Geena Davis and Alec Baldwin (whose deceased characters are spelled out with one line in the film), most of the big nostalgia stars from the first part are back, including Michael Keaton as the iconic bio-exorcist, Winona Ryder as Lydia and Catherine O’Hara as Delia. Hot up-and-coming actress Jenna Ortega from the Scream Franchise and Burton’s hit Wednesday The series is there to attract the Alpha generation, and a group of reliable character actors (Justin Theroux, Monica Bellucci, Willem Dafoe, Danny DeVito) rounds it all out. This exquisite mix of familiar faces, recurring characters, and Burton’s signature macabre humor/cartoon look will hopefully keep this film performing consistently well through Halloween (when the story takes place). Well-placed marketing collaborations with Fanta and Keebler, as well as riding the popcorn bucket wave at Regal, AMC, and Cinemark, can only further boost ticket sales.

Disadvantages

• Published 36 years after the original, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice is one of the most anticipated direct sequels of all time alongside Top Shooter: Maverick (36 years), Blade Runner 2049 (33 years), Coming to America 2 (33 years), The Odd Couple II (30 years) and (if you count it) Mary Poppins Returns (54 years). With the exception of lonerthese films were not necessarily well received, and the fact that they became boring or the actors got older on their long journey to the screen plays a role. Beetlejuice A sequel has been in the works since the first film became a surprise hit in March 1988, but Burton’s involvement with the Batman franchise has seen scripts like Beetlejuice in Hawaii Collecting dust. After two Batman entries, Burton and Keaton finally teamed up again for the Disney dud Dumboan experience so bitter that Burton almost gave up making films. Keaton didn’t enjoy the experience either. As a result, the combination of Burton and Keaton is neither as established nor as productive as the director’s eight-film collaboration with Johnny Depp.

Since Burton earned over a billion dollars for Disney with the 2010 live-action film Alice in Wonderland (a career high), his box office track record has been slipping, especially domestically. Here’s a look…

• Dumbo (2019) – $114.7 million domestic/$353.1 million international
• The Island of the Special Children (2016) – $87.2 million domestic/$295.9 million international
• Dark shadows (2012) – $79.7 million domestic/$245.5 million international
• Frankenweenie (2012) – $35.2 million domestic/$81.1 million international
• Big eyes (2014) – $14.4 million domestic/$27.3 million international

Big eyes could his Ed Wood Biopic energy as a Disney classic is remade (Dumbo), a cult TV show (Dark shadows) and even his own short film from 1984 (Frankenweenie) lacked his typical talent for recycling pop culture artifacts. This list excludes the bombs produced by Burton, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter And Alice in Wonderland: Through the Looking Glass. The name “Tim Burton” used to be a selling point like Steven Spielberg or Christopher Nolan, but that hasn’t been the case lately. It’s quite possible that Burton’s brand of gothic quirkiness has had its day, although he has Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will hopefully rekindle the world’s love for the dark auteur film.

2. Deadpool and Wolverine
Marvel Studios | Week 7
Weekend range: $7-10 million
Showtime market share: 8%

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At USD 603.9 million domestically, Deadpool and Wolverine wants to finally surpass the performance of 2012 The Avengers ($623.3 million) as the fifth highest-grossing MCU entry in the U.S., which it will likely do around or shortly after that time frame. After grossing $15.4 million last weekend, we expect a drop of no more than 50% or less, which is still great for this title. Disney has kept the title exclusive in theaters for 40 days after release, which helps boost box office receipts in the later years. Releasing blockbusters on home video while they are high on the box office charts has become a trend this year, as when Warner’s Dune – Part Two just a month and a half after its digital release… and that’s despite the film still being in the top 5 at the box office.

Disadvantages

Beetlejuice is sucking all the oxygen out of the room at the box office this weekend, meaning the Merc With a Mouth will end his reign at the top after winning five of the last six weekends. Although Deadpool and WolverineThe percentage declines have been getting smaller with each passing weekend, and that range is set to change after a personal record of -16% was recorded over Labor Day weekend.

DRAW:

3. It ends with us
Sony Pictures | Week 5
Weekend range: $4-6 million
Showtime market share: 6%

3.The living room
NEW
Weekend range: $4-6 million
Showtime market share: 6%

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How Deadpool and Wolverinethe romantic drama It ends with us has posted smaller drops in consecutive weekends. We may be seeing the smallest drop yet for the Blake Lively-starring film, even as A24 mounts a counteroffensive for the female demo with its new horror programmer. The front room. Screenplay and direction: Max and Sam Eggers, brothers of The Witch Directed by Robert Eggers, the film stars famous singer and actress Brandy Norwood (aka Brandy) as a pregnant woman who takes in her husband’s crazy/estranged stepmother. Microaggressions quickly turn into macroaggressions. The story is based on a story by British writer Susan Hill, whose The Woman in Black has been successfully adapted several times and recently spawned a franchise.

Disadvantages

The actual data from Monday have It ends with us from its originally forecast 3rd place over Labor Day to 5th place under Reagan And Twisters. It could recover if it weren’t for A24’s R-rated counter-program to Beetlejuice with The front roomthat could snatch the No. 3 throne from us. We have both titles neck and neck, although The front room could stagnate in the same way Worried launched last weekend. Much of the marketing is carried by Brandy, who has been a big hit since Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a marriage counselor in 2013. The star was released on streaming services such as The best Christmas ever!although an artsy horror film on A24 could be just the thing to restart her film career. There are no reviews yet, which is never a positive sign.