Japan has a very clear vision of what the future of clean energy in the Asia-Pacific region should look like: decarbonisation, but slowly and with a longer-term role for coal, oil and gas.

This was clearly evident this week when energy ministers from nine Southeast Asian countries, plus Japan and Australia, met in Jakarta to develop a shared vision for Asia’s energy future as part of the Asian Zero Emissions Community (AZEC) initiative launched by Japan last year.

But there is a clear problem here. Japan’s vision is in direct conflict with Australia’s efforts to become a green export superpower. And worse, Japanese investment is a key reason Australia has surprisingly emerged as a gas export giant.

Energy security is a top priority for Japanese policymakers, who are concerned about how to maintain electricity supplies across their import-dependent archipelago. While Tokyo has green energy plans, its short-term focus is on extending the life of fossil fuels – coupled with carbon capture.

Labor came to power on a promise to act more quickly on climate change. Australia is to be largely renewable by the end of the decade, and Canberra wants to make clean exports a reality.

But Japan is making this difficult by funding gas production in Australia, which could keep our fast-growing and energy-hungry region reliant on dirty fossil fuels and questionable carbon sequestration plans for much longer.

There is a real risk that Australia’s green export plans could be swept away by a flood of new fossil fuels.

So what are Japan’s zero-emission plans?

In 2022, Japanese Prime Minister Kishido Fumio began promoting a triple breakthrough – efforts that combine decarbonization, economic growth, and energy security. To promote this idea, Fumio founded the Asian Zero Emissions Community.

While these goals sound reasonable, the devil is in the details. Japan, the world’s fourth-largest economy, has long been dependent on imported coal, oil and gas – and even more so since the Fukushima disaster in 2011 led to the closure of nuclear power plants. Even as the world belatedly moves to tackle climate change, Japanese policymakers are still focused on maintaining fossil fuel supplies. Many AZEC projects aim to use fossil fuels to generate electricity.

The government’s energy policy is explicitly aimed at securing the long-term supply of fossil fuels and encouraging Japanese companies to participate. Japan is now the second largest public funder of international fossil fuel projects, spending over seven billion Australian dollars annually.

How does this square with net zero? Japan claims that new fossil fuel plants can cut emissions by burning ammonia in coal-fired plants, blending hydrogen with fossil gas in gas-fired plants, and increasing carbon capture and storage.

Each of these technologies is expensive and largely unproven. They cannot reduce emissions anywhere near the scale or pace required. And every million spent supporting fossil fuels is a million not spent on renewables and storage.

Japanese financing provides Australian gas

Japan views Australia as a friendly country with vast fossil fuel reserves and long-standing trade relations.

Any changes to coal and gas production have been met with Japanese lobbying. When Queensland increased coal royalties in 2022, Japan’s ambassador to Australia, Shingo Yamagami, strongly opposed the move. The move, he warned, could have “far-reaching implications for Japanese investments beyond the coal industry.”

When the federal government tightened the safeguard mechanism, our main emissions policy for industry, the costs of some gas projects rose. In response, Yamagami ramped up his rhetoric, warning that Tokyo’s neon lights would go out without Australian energy exports.

Japan does not burn everything domestically. It sells more liquefied natural gas (LNG) to other Asian countries than it imports from Australia. Without Japan’s cheap financing, our LNG producers would not be able to compete with low-cost producers like Qatar.

With a global gas oversupply forecast by 2026, Australia should try to reduce its LNG production. But Japan will not allow that.

This year alone, Japan provided Woodside with a $2.5 billion loan to support the development of the giant Scarborough gas field in Western Australia.

Independent and green – or dependent and dirty?

Domestically, Australia is greening, with coal being phased out and renewables and storage technologies taking over. Last year, 40% of the electricity on our main grid came from clean energy, and by 2030, more than 80% of Australia’s total electricity demand is expected to come from renewables. Internationally, however, we are now the second largest exporter of carbon emissions from fossil fuels.

Australia has large reserves of critical minerals (essential for renewable energy and batteries) and world-class renewable resources and is ideally positioned to export green commodities to the region.

The Albanese government is promoting Australia as a “renewable energy superpower” and will invest public money under the “Future Made in Australia” plan to give the local green industry a chance at global success.

But Japan has a different vision. Money flows from Tokyo have already distorted Australia’s energy market and increased demand for gas in the region. Worse still, they have made it harder for Australian policymakers to build forward-looking industries. New gas projects are drawing investment, labour and supply chain capacity away from the clean energy sector.

It’s not that Japan is against renewable energy. It’s just slow to embrace it. Tokyo has ambitious plans to become the world’s largest producer of energy from offshore wind.

Current modelling shows that Japan could get 90% of its energy from clean sources by 2035, achieving far greater energy independence and dramatically reducing its dependence on expensive fossil fuels. If Japan were to take this route, its Australian investments would likely shift from gas to green exports.

But Japan is currently focused on maintaining its supply of fossil fuels.

Australia must help shape Asia’s energy transition. Otherwise, our future risks being made in Tokyo.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.