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Sport in Seriousness
After two weeks of NFL play, league-wide scoring is at its lowest level since 2006. NFL teams are averaging 21.4 points per game, continuing a downward trend since a high of 24.8 points in 2020.
The biggest change is in the passing game. After two weeks, NFL quarterbacks have completed an average of 19.8 passes per game, the fewest since 2008 (19.7). Yards per game are at 193.6, the lowest since 1992 (187.6).
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With 16 weeks left in the regular season, offensive players still have plenty of time to catch up. But ESPN football analyst Mel Kiper Jr. had a new idea: abolishing two-high coverage in the NFL.
This elicited some interesting reactions from former players.
Here is an explanation of Two-High Coverage, also called Cover 2, in the NFL:
What does Two High Coverage mean in the NFL?
You’ll probably hear analysts on NFL broadcasts talk about different coverage systems that defenses use. There’s basic man coverage, where one player is tasked with following a specific offensive player. The other system is zone coverage, where players are assigned different areas of the field to cover.
Cover 2 is a system where two players, often the safeties, cover the deepest area (“zone”) of the field. This means that the remaining players in coverage split the area between the two high safeties. This can be either man-to-man, zone, or a mix of both.
This is not a new idea. Hall of Fame coach Tony Dungy said it dates back to the Pittsburgh Steelers teams of the 1970s. It was popularized with Dungy’s “Tampa-2” system in the late 1990s/early 2000s and again more recently with current Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.
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Why is Cover 2 popular?
Fangio’s system and use of Cover 2 became more popular in the late 2010s during his time as defensive coordinator with the Chicago Bears and later as head coach of the Denver Broncos. The two-high system helped limit explosive plays further down the field.
But it’s not the most popular coverage in the league. According to data from Pro Football Focus, Cover 3 (three players playing the deep zone) was the most used coverage across the league in 2023. Cover 1 (one player playing the deep zone) and Cover 3 combined to account for more than half of the coverage snaps in 2023.
According to TruMedia data, Cover 3 will continue to be the most popular coverage in 2024, at 33.8% of snaps. The data also shows a 30% rate of stealth coverages in the midfield, up from 25% last season.
NFL teams have also averaged 2.5 sacks per game so far in 2024, and the league-wide sack rate of 7.7% is the highest since 1992. The defense is more effective at rushing the passer than it has been since the days of Hall of Famers Reggie White, Bruce Smith, Chris Doleman and John Randle.
Kiper’s argument is creative, but teams scoring fewer points in 2024 could be due to several factors beyond a particular type of coverage.
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