The Pac-12 is back.

Well, almost.

The Conference of Champions is rebuilding, starting with the acquisition of four Mountain West schools on Thursday: Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State and Fresno State. They will play in the new league in the fall of 2026.

That gives Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould six members, including Oregon State and Washington State. She needs at least two more new additions to meet the NCAA’s minimum requirements and qualify as an FBS conference, and she has just months to do that. The Pac-12 must have eight members by July 2026, the end of the NCAA’s two-year grace period that allows a league to re-establish itself.

That seems like a long time. But in a world where such big and costly moves are being made, it isn’t. The Pac-12 would prefer to have its entire membership involved in negotiations on a new television contract, and it would probably want to seal that sooner rather than later. Every television network would prefer to know what it’s buying before it buys it.

In its statement announcing the new additions on Thursday, the Pac-12 outlined criteria for additional new members. But as is often the case, brand strength, on-field success and television markets trump all else. However, other factors must also be considered, such as total membership. It is important not to get too carried away and take on programs that do not provide enough value.

Remember that television contracts are the largest source of revenue for athletic departments. You must distribute the television money – often equally – to your members. With each new member, the total amount decreases.

There’s something else to consider: exit and penalty fees for potential new members. These can be costly, and while it’s claimed the Pac-12 has endless money to pay for all of these transactions, that’s not the case. Yes, the conference has more than $100 million in new revenue through bowl contracts, CFP distribution and NCAA tournament units, but it uses much of that money for operational purposes.

But enough of that. Who else could or would the Pac-12 invite? The league wants to be known as the “best of the rest” outside of the Power Four leagues. Who would take that step? And what would be the impact on the other G5 conferences and college sports as a whole?

ACC and Big 12

The Pac-12’s first option was not to restructure. That was a good option and they were happy with it, but it was certainly not the highest priority. Oregon State and Washington State’s first option was the same as every other school looking for a new home after Washington and Oregon moved to the Big Ten: join an established power conference.

The approaches to the Big 12 and ACC came to nothing. They showed little to no interest, as was the case last fall when the leagues accepted Colorado, Utah, Arizona State and Arizona (Big 12) and Stanford and Cal (ACC).

There was hope, even expressed publicly at times, that a major realignment of the ACC – FSU, Clemson and others leaving – would create a domino effect that could benefit the future of the Pac-12. Perhaps they could serve as replacements, forming a West Coast wing of the ACC with Stanford and Cal? Or perhaps the Cardinal and Bears would be willing to join a disarrayed ACC in its rebuilding effort?

Neither of these things happened.

That leaves the Pac-12 — it’s being rebuilt with the addition of Mountain West schools. And before you ask, Stanford and Cal signed the ACC rights transfer, which binds them to the league through 2036 under the current contract (this is not new information and was reported last fall when the two programs joined the conference).

At this point, as the ACC agreement is written, they are not candidates for a rebuild of the Pac-12. But could they be one day if the ACC starts losing members? Sure.

That’s not the case right now, and it would take a catastrophic event to convince them to give up millions in ACC television revenue to return to the Pac-12. They’re not getting the full ACC shares yet, but they will eventually, and those amounts are expected to be significantly higher than the Pac-12’s television value (as much as three times as much).

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American athlete

If the Pac-12’s next preferred expansion destinations beyond the four already mentioned were in the Mountain West, it probably would have taken this week.

That wasn’t the case – a sign that the Pac-12 might first look to Eastern suitors, which include a number of programs, many of which are now members of the American Athletic Conference, which for years was the Group of Five’s premier league in college sports.

The AAC has the most attractive members from a television market, brand equity and on-field success perspective, including Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, North Texas, Rice and even one in Florida (South Florida). The Texas schools would be good travel partners for each other. The same goes for Tulane and Rice, two top-tier academic institutions located in close proximity (though Rice is a tough sell).

If given the opportunity, these schools – not all of them will be interested in the Pac-12 (this is speculation) – will have to decide whether moving to a conference across the country, in a completely different region and with a completely different culture, is worth the brand value and television value of the Pac-12.

The problem: We don’t really know his television value, but the people at the Pac-12 value him higher than the best deal in the Group of Five, which is the American League, which pays its original members about $8 to $10 million annually.

If the Pac-12 brings in $10 million to $12 million per school, is that worth a move across the country? And how about $15 million? That latter number seems high, but who knows.

Don’t expect new AAC commissioner Tim Pernetti to be unproactive. According to those who know his thinking, Pernetti is interested in pursuing Mountain West programs like Air Force. Pernetti already has Army and Navy in his conference. Air Force is a sensible and attractive addition, and the AAC could offer more in sales than the Mountain West, which is around $5-6 million.

The American League isn’t the only league with interesting teams for the Pac-12. In the Sun Belt, there’s Texas State, an up-and-coming athletic department with a burgeoning football program, a large student body, and a location just outside of the bustling metropolis of Austin.

Another thing to remember is that the Pac-12 lost its autonomous/power conference designation, a name that gave it more voting power within the NCAA administration and higher revenue in the CFP distribution model.

While they are unlikely to regain status, there is a “look-in” clause in the CFP contract after the 2027 playoffs that can be triggered to reevaluate revenue distribution. The Pac-12, if it is stable enough and has enough brands, could make a case for more CFP money.

Mountain West

What happens if the Pac-12 falters in the East?

This leaves the company with no choice but to once again turn its attention to the members of the Mountain West.

Many in college sports expressed surprise that UNLV was not included in the Pac-12’s first phase of expansion. The potential is there, given the university’s location in a major city and its emerging football program.

However, political considerations are also at play. According to those familiar with the discussions, the separation of the two – the University of Nevada and UNLV – is a hurdle. But that doesn’t mean it’s not possible. And perhaps they could join the Pac-12 together at a later date. Or has the hurdle been overcome and UNLV will move on alone?

The Pac-12’s interest in other Mountain West programs is unclear, and there is probably a reason why it did not invite them in the first phase.

But the question arises: What is the Mountain West doing?

Commissioner Gloria Nevarez isn’t sitting idle. In fact, the league has been vetting potential members, dating back to last year when San Diego State and Boise State were considered to join the old Pac-12.

New Mexico State, new to Conference USA, makes geographical sense. The same goes for UTEP, also in CUSA. Both programs would likely see a doubling of annual payouts. Could they even get a signing bonus? The Mountain West is entitled to up to $110 million in exit and penalty fees from the departing four members and the Pac-12.

Tarleton State, an up-and-coming FCS program with plenty of money and potential located just outside of Dallas-Fort Worth, is also an option. And what about FCS teams like North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Montana State and Montana?

Keep in mind that the NCAA recently raised the initiation fee for those moving from FCS to FBS to a whopping $5 million.

Basketball schools

Back to the Pac-12.

There are many West Coast basketball franchises that could be attractive to a new Pac-12 conference, but the easiest is Gonzaga, a team with a long basketball tradition that regularly advances to the Sweet 16 and has been to the Final Four twice since 2017.

The top conferences have long flirted with the Zags, which don’t offer football, with the most recent approach coming from the Big 12, which had serious talks with the school last year before deciding against adding it.

Gonzaga also makes sense geographically, as it is only 80 miles north of the Washington State campus. There are other programs to the west that promise basketball success. Saint Mary’s, for example, is located in Moraga, California.

However, the Pac-12 does not want to get too big because that would dilute the revenue distribution of other programs.

And so the Pac-12’s quest to rebuild continues. Almost certainly it will head east first, then back west, then… well, who knows.

Kirk Schulz, president of Washington state and a key player in the rebuilding effort, hinted in an interview with Yahoo Sports earlier this week that more movement is underway.

“In five years, when these rights expire, there will likely be more restructuring. How do I prepare Washington State to have to make decisions in the future?”