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The race for the presidency is incredibly exciting. Current polls show a neck-and-neck race.
The two candidates still have a major joint national event scheduled before election day: a 90-minute debate on Tuesday evening, moderated by ABC in Philadelphia.
Let’s take a look at the dynamics. There are four things we should pay attention to.
1. Preparation
The Trump campaign’s MAGA motto says a lot about his worldview. But it ignores one of the former president’s most enduring traits: He disregards tradition and instead lets his instincts guide him. Trump’s drive is a self-reinforcing belief in his own abilities, which he puts above any other possible preparation. These instincts refuse typical, detailed preparation.
Preparations are underway at the Pennsylvania Convention Center one day before the presidential debate between the two major presidential candidates. Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
According to campaign sources, the former president is not conducting mock debates. Rather, he was Observe “political time”, something a source told us is an inside joke that means preparing for the debate. Specifically, the team sits down with Trump, usually at a table, and discusses his policy positions and those of Vice President Kamala Harris.
Senior advisor Jason Miller, known for his communications and media work, is leading the preparations, we were told. The visual elements were kept simple: mostly a small team at a table with Trump in a chair.
Trump’s aides include former Hawaii congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard. A senior campaign official told us Gabbard was there to provide insight and make sure there was a woman in the room.
“You can’t have a debate when you have seven people running against Harris,” they said.
We’re also told that Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida is a key adviser on Trump’s debate preparation and is asking the former president pointed questions. Gaetz said Trump “doesn’t prepare for debates.”
In the meantime, Harris has been attending a debate prep academy of sorts. According to reports in the New York Times and other media outlets, she has been practicing on a simulated debate set with television lighting and an adviser dressed as Trump playing the role of Trump.
The two opposing approaches will clash on Tuesday evening. In the past, Trump’s relative lack of preparation seemed to hurt him in early debates with key opponents. Consider his first debate in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, his first debate in 2020 against Joe Biden, and the 2016 primary debate in which he faced Carly Fiorina, who surprised him with a sharp retort.
Democrats fear the opposite: that Harris might over-prepare and either sound rehearsed or have difficulty reproducing the information as if it were a study session.
2. The first 30 minutes
There is lively debate about the debates themselves – whether and when they are important. However, many agree that the start of these debates is the most critical window of opportunity.
Two reasons: This is the time when the largest audience is watching and forming their first (and probably second) impressions.
During the 2020 election campaign, the New York Times tracked viewer behavior during the debates and found that viewership peaked after about 15 to 20 minutes and declined after 40 minutes.
For Tuesday’s debate, turn your first impression dial up to 11. This will not only be the first debate between Harris and Trump, but also the first time the two have met.
(Remember the conversation surrounding Sarah Palin and Biden’s first handshake in 2008, moderated by our own Gwen Ifill?)
Furthermore, it is Harris’ first debate on the presidential stage during the general election. And it will be her first debate since the 2020 election. Trump hasn’t had many more in that time, but the relatively recent one was a clear victory for him. (And ultimately for Harris, too.)
In the 2024 Biden-Trump debate in June The first 30 minutes were critical. By this point, it was clear that Biden’s performance was not good. About 21 minutes into the debate, Trump quipped, “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don’t think he knows what he said either.”
This impression stuck and ultimately contributed to Biden’s attempt at re-election failing.
3. Pay attention to politics
Both candidates have made a number of promises and commitments, but their explanations of how they specifically intend to achieve their goals are also incomplete.
An example: Trump has offered few details about his plan to mass deport illegal immigrants, other than to say he would delegate it to local law enforcement and the National Guard. It’s unclear how he plans to fund it, exactly which people will be deported first, and what guidelines law enforcement will use to identify those to deport.
Watch the video in the player above.
Another example: Harris has not yet outlined a comprehensive immigration policy. She has said she continues to support the bipartisan immigration bill that has been stalled in Congress. While that bill has substance, it primarily addresses asylum and immediate needs at the border. A number of other issues remain unanswered in the immigration system, including visas for farmworkers and other legal immigration categories.
4. Watch out for anyone who loses their nerve
In this era when politics is driven by emotion and personality, the most influential factor may be the intangible sense of who is the most composed.
Trump campaign sources believe their candidate’s calm demeanor in the Biden debate was crucial in highlighting Biden’s own problems. The question is whether Trump can remain the “calm Trump” for 90 minutes with Harris.
Harris may not have as much experience in national debates as Trump, but she is a seasoned prosecutor who has spent years analyzing her opponents’ pressure points in rhetorical standoffs. (One of her first standout moments as a senator came with her questioning of now-Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.)
Each side hopes that its candidate will keep a cool head and appear confident, while simultaneously provoking the other side into overreacting.
Since only one microphone is on at a time—that of the person answering the question—you shouldn’t just listen to find out who is more relaxed. Pay attention to body language.
Sometimes I watch a debate the second time around with most of the sound off, and it always gives me at least a grain of new perspective.
This is good news if you ever get tired of listening to the debate. Turn the volume down. You might learn more that way.
