JMU and Liberty finished the 2023 regular season with a legitimate claim to the title of “Best College Football Team in Virginia.”
The Flames’ crushing loss to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl and the roster and coaching changes at JMU in the offseason raised questions about whether these teams are the best in the state come fall. Thanks to a strong finish in 2023 and major recruiting success, the team in Blacksburg heads into 2024 with a firm claim to be the best.
And as for Virginia and Old Dominion? Well, those teams still play football.
Will they challenge any of the other three for state supremacy this season? On paper, that looks unlikely. Fortunately for those who like entertainment, they don’t play the games on paper.
Here’s a look at our Virginia FBS Power Rankings ahead of Week 1 of the 2024 season. We will try to update these rankings regularly throughout the year.
1. Virginia Tech
The Hokies enter 2024 with legitimate ambitions for the College Football Playoffs in the new 12-team format. Virginia Tech returns its starting quarterback Kyron Drones, who gained confidence in the 2023 season and showed the makings of an All-ACC player. Drones can run and his wide receivers are among the most dynamic in the ACC.
Virginia Tech should be strong defensively. The defensive line, led by preseason first-team All-ACC member Aeneas Peebles, should be one of the best in the ACC.
Additionally, the schedule is good for the Hokies. The non-conference schedule of Vanderbilt, Marshall, Old Dominion and Rutgers isn’t scary, and the ACC schedule doesn’t include Florida State or NC State. 10 wins is possible.
ESPN SP+ preseason rankings (8/23): 36.
ESPN preseason FPI rankings (8/23): 50th.
Sagarin ranking of the previous season (23.08.): 40
2. Freedom
Look, Liberty’s 2023 schedule was loose, and the 2024 schedule doesn’t feature a Power Four team. It’s loose again.
Don’t let the schedule fool you, though. Liberty has a good football team.
Would Liberty have been leading the Sun Belt last year? Probably not, but the Flames beat Old Dominion by a mile. They definitely would have been in contention for the division title. Plus, they have their head coach, starting quarterback and starting running back back from a team that won 12 games last season.
Liberty is the clear favorite to win at CUSA, and a road win against App State on September 28 could put Liberty in the 2024 College Football Playoffs, barring any other slip-ups.
ESPN SP+ Ranking: 48.
ESPN FPI Ranking: 79.
Sagarin ranking: 59.
3. JMU
The Dukes lost most of their coaching staff and key special teams contributors for 2023. Still, the signing of head coach Bob Chesney from Holy Cross and a strong transfer portal class means JMU can “reload” rather than “rebuild.”
A favorable schedule again raises high expectations for JMU. Road games against UNC and App State are important challenges, but with games against Charlotte, Gardner-Webb, Ball State, ULM and Southern Miss, 8, 9 or 10 wins seem possible.
If JMU finishes the season first or second in these rankings, it will be because the offensive and defensive lines are playing to their potential. On paper, JMU looks great in the trenches, and if those units stay healthy and perform to their maximum, the Dukes could win the Sun Belt. With a loss or no loss, JMU could move into the CFP.
However, due to the large number of changes, the Dukes start 2024 one spot behind Liberty in our power rankings. We need to see the Dukes on the field before they move into the top two.
ESPN SP+ Ranking: 56.
ESPN FPI Ranking: 51.
Sagarin ranking: 71.
4. Virginia
It’s Tony Elliott’s third year, and Virginia fans are hoping that means the Cavaliers are ready to play in a bowl game. If they can’t, Elliott will likely be on the hot seat in his fourth year. A disastrous third year could even lead to his firing.
A lack of elite depth could be UVA’s undoing this fall, although the team’s projected starting lineup looks competitive. The wide receivers are solid, with Chris Tyree and Malachi Fields both not well matched. At quarterback, Anthony Colandrea could be the future of the program. On defense, safety Jonas Sanker is one of the best players in the country. The starting defensive line should also play at an above-average level in the ACC.
There is reason for optimism in Charlottesville, but the betting markets are predicting that Virginia will not make a bowl game. Virginia will need to win consistently before it can break into the top three of the rankings.
ESPN SP+ Ranking: 78.
ESPN FPI Ranking: 72.
Sagarin Rank: 79.
5. Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne always seems to help Old Dominion exceed preseason expectations, and he’ll have to do that again if the Monarchs want to make a bowl game.
Fortunately, linebacker Jason Henderson, one of the best tacklers in the country, is returning to ODU. There are a few really good individual players on this team, but depth and questions on the offensive front could derail the team’s bowl dreams.
A brutal opening schedule against South Carolina, East Carolina and Virginia Tech could plunge the team into a major crisis before the calendar turns to October.
ESPN SP+: 111th place
ESPN FPI: 108th place
Sagarin Rank: 108.
Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications
