We recently published a list of Beer loses its fizz while spirits gain popularity: Top 10 stocks to buy. In this article, we take a look at how Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ) compares to other spirits stocks.
As we approach the end of 2024, the alcoholic beverage industry is also changing. Data from the Distilled Spirits Council (DSC) shows that spirits continue to gain ground on beer, which is traditionally the alcoholic beverage of choice. In 2023, spirits held more than 42% of the total market, an increase of 13 percentage points since 2000. These changes come at a time when Americans’ attitudes toward alcohol are changing significantly. For example, in a very detailed survey conducted by Gallup, participants were asked a variety of questions about their drinking habits and their perception of the role of alcohol in society.
Compared to participants surveyed in 2001, when 22% of participants considered alcohol beneficial to health, in 2023 this figure dropped by more than half, reaching 10%, the lowest level in two decades. Likewise, DSC data confirmed that 47% of participants had most frequently drunk beer in 1992, but not only did this percentage drop to 37% in 2023, but the figures for wine and spirits increased from 27% and 21% to 29% and 31% respectively.
In 1987, 29% did not drink alcohol in the past week, compared to 33% in 2023. Other research also shows that between 2001 and 2023, 72% of 18-34 year olds reported having had a drink in the past year, while this figure fell to 62% in 2024. This suggests that the trend towards lower alcohol consumption is mainly driven by young people, as percentages increased among both 35-54 year olds and those over 55.
Building on that, while declining alcohol consumption may intuitively sound bad for the spirits industry as it contributes to lower sales, the reality might be a little different. This is because lower intensity of alcohol consumption leads to better health outcomes and more long-term sales for the alcohol companies. In addition, as demand for spirits increases, younger drinkers are more likely to focus on sweeter drinks like tequila or its close cousin mezcal. This is because sales of America’s most popular spirit, vodka, stagnated in 2023, while tequila/mezcal sales grew 7.9% annually to $6.5 billion, approaching vodka’s dominant market position of $7.2 billion.
In addition, Americans continue to value convenience, as the fastest-growing spirits category is premixed cocktails, or ready-to-drink alcohol. Although the category’s market share is relatively small at $2.8 billion, it grew 26.8% annually and was the only spirit with a double-digit percentage market share increase.
While it’s possible that the decline in alcohol consumption is due to a health-conscious population (39% believed alcohol was harmful to health in 2023, up from 27% in 2001), it’s also possible that other recreational products like cannabis and psychedelics are taking over. For cannabis, 2024 has proven to be a pivotal year, as increasing legalization and decriminalization will allow more consumers to try it. In this regard, data collected by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) provides insight. SAMSA’s 2019 National Survey on Drug Use and Health found that 50.8%, or 139.7 million people, reported drinking alcohol. The same survey for 2022 found that number dropped to 48.7%, or 137.4 million people. Crucially, in 2019, 54.3% or 18.3 million people aged 18 to 25 had drunk alcohol in the last month, while in 2022 this figure was 50.2% or 17.5 million.
So it is clear that alcohol consumption has decreased between 2019 and 2022. Marijuana use, on the other hand, is increasing. In 2019, 35.4% of the same age group were marijuana users, which was significantly higher than the 29.8% in 2002. In total, 17.5% or 48.2 million people used marijuana last year, 2019, up from 11% in 2002. In 2022, that number had risen to 61.9 million people. Another important study that directly analyzes whether marijuana is gaining popularity over alcohol comes from the Addiction Journal. It analyzes SAMHSA data between 1992 and 2022 and reports a 15-fold increase in cannabis use per capita.
In terms of numbers, 17.7 million people reported using cannabis daily or almost daily in 2022, three million more than the 14.7 million who consumed alcohol. The intensity of cannabis use was also higher: the average cannabis user reported using cannabis for 15 to 16 days in the past month, while the average drinker drank for 5 to 6 days.
To summarize, alcohol consumption is currently declining, younger drinkers are preferring sweeter drinks and spirits over vodka and beer, and cannabis use is on the rise. With these details in mind, let’s look at the ten best alcoholic beverage stocks to buy.
Our methodology
To create our list of the top 10 alcohol stocks to buy, we ranked the 40 most valuable alcoholic beverage companies traded on the NYSE and NASDAQ by the number of hedge funds that purchased the stocks in the first quarter of 2024. From this, we selected the stocks with the highest number of hedge fund users.
Why do we care about the stocks hedge funds invest in? The reason is simple: Our research has shown that we can outperform the market by mimicking the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks each quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (Further details can be found here).
A winemaker examines a glass of red wine from a barrel in a cellar.
Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ)
Number of hedge fund investors in Q1 2024: 47
Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ) is another diversified alcohol company that operates in the beer, wine, and spirits markets. This gives the company a diversified market that allows it to operate in either the beer or spirits market depending on the overall conditions. Although beer is outperforming spirits overall in terms of growth, Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ)’s beer division has been the star of the show and has caused the stock to hedge losses this year as it has only fallen 2% year to date. This is primarily due to Constellation Brands, Inc.’s (NYSE:STZ) beer sell-through (units sold to customers at the end of the supply chain) coming in at 6.4% for the June quarter, beating analyst estimates of 6%. This metric is crucial for large companies like Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ) because it indicates their supply chain flow and ability to deliver products to consumers rather than leaving them sitting on shelves. Spirits and wines typically struggle in an inflationary environment, and Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ) benefits from diversity as investors focus on beers in a weak economy and vice versa.
Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ) management commented on the beer business during the first quarter 2025 conference call:
“Our beer business saw volumes increase 7.6% in the first quarter, while exits increased 6.4%, excluding the impact of the craft brand divestitures in June of last year. It is important to reiterate that this mid- to high-single-digit volume growth was fully in line with our expectations for the fiscal year as well as our medium-term algorithm. Despite the volatility in short-term scanner data, whether due to weather, holidays or other non-structural factors, or the performance of the broader beer category, whether due to dynamics affecting other brands or segments, our beer team once again consistently met our goals and targets. Now focused on the performance of our largest brands, Modelo Especial saw volumes increase nearly 11%, maintaining its position as the largest market share gainer and extending its lead as the leading beer brand in the U.S. channels we track.
Importantly, Modelo Especial continues to gain traction in households, becoming the third-largest brand at the end of May with a 52-week increase of 2.4 percentage points. While Corona Extra sales declined just over 1% in the first quarter, we continue to expect to be able to deliver low-single-digit growth with this brand. Importantly, Corona Extra remains one of the top five beer brands in the U.S. and continues to gain market share in the category. Pacifico saw notable growth in sales of over 20% and was the fourth-largest market share gainer in the overall beer category. Our Modelo Chelada brands saw sales increase of more than 5% and we are excited to build on this momentum in fiscal 2025 with two new flavors, Fresa Picante and Negra con Chile.”
Total STZ 1st place on our list of the best spirits stocks to buy. While we recognize STZ’s potential as an investment, we believe some AI stocks promise higher returns and do so in a shorter time frame. If you’re looking for an AI stock that’s more promising than STZ but trades at less than 5 times its earnings, read our report on the cheapest AI stock.
READ MORE: Analyst sees new $25 billion ‘opportunity’ for NVIDIA and the 10 best stocks to buy for Q3 2024, according to Bank of America.
Disclosure: None. This article was originally published on Insider Monkey.
