There is a lot of turnover in the NFL compared to last year, and this is especially true in the postseason.

Since 1990, an average of 5.85 new teams have qualified for the playoffs that did not appear the year before, and in each of the past 34 years there have been at least four new teams to the postseason.

So which teams will rock the party this season and which could be a surprise miss? Let’s break it down and get some betting values.

Team to make the playoffs: Seahawks (+180, DraftKings)

After making the playoffs in 2022, the Seahawks narrowly missed the playoffs last year. They finished the season 9-8, tied with the Packers, but Green Bay got in on the tiebreakers.

However, I am confident that Seattle will return to the playoffs in head coach Mike Macdonald’s first season.

Macdonald coordinated a historic defense in Baltimore last year, where the Ravens became the first team in NFL history to win the triple crown, leading the league in fewest points allowed (16.5 per game), sacks (60) and takeaways (31).

Seattle has talent at all levels of defense, most notably young defensive backs Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon.

Seattle’s offense should also improve under new coordinator Ryan Grubb, who nearly helped Michael Penix Jr. win the Heisman Trophy in Washington last year.

Expect Grubb to put an emphasis on play-action passing, increased tempo and creativity in the red zone, which will benefit Geno Smith, as well as the improved health of an offensive line that couldn’t stay on the field last year.

The Seahawks play in the rough NFC West and have a schedule that is middle of the pack, but it shouldn’t surprise you if Seattle improves significantly and returns to the postseason.

Team to miss the playoffs: Cowboys (+170, BetMGM)

The Cowboys have won exactly 12 games in three consecutive seasons, two of which resulted in NFC East titles.

However, this year also presents a potential downside for the team, which Sharp Football says has the 11th toughest schedule in the league when considering the projected total number of Vegas wins.

Dak Prescott had a career year in 2023 and nearly won MVP honors, but he did so against the easiest schedules of opposing defenses. Dallas’ roster is getting more and more challenging this year, and it doesn’t help that the offense lost left tackle Tyron Smith and center Tyler Biadasz.

Brock Hoffman, the expected replacement for the center position, has made few appearances since entering the NFL as a non-drafted free agent in 2022.

Rookie Tyler Guyton started once in his career as a left tackle at Oklahoma in an offense that rarely used traditional three-step dropbacks.

The defense could also be in trouble after the loss of coordinator Dan Quinn and secondary coach Joe Whitt Jr.

Dallas has had to deal with an unsustainable turnover rate over the past few seasons.

According to Sharp Football, the Cowboys led the NFL by a wide margin, posting a +130 EPA on takeaways. Under new management, that lead should return to reality.

Betting on the NFL?

It’s not all bad news for Dallas after Prescott and CeeDee Lamb were among the league’s most profitable QB-WR duos last year.

However, there is a reason the Cowboys’ win total is 9.5, and I see a world where they are battling for a playoff spot at the end of the season.