Last Wednesday, Aaron Judge hit his 300th career home run in fewer at-bats than any other player in MLB history, prompting teammate Juan Soto to comment, “I hope he breaks the home run record.”
While Judge will finish this season more than 400 home runs behind Barry Bonds’ record of 762, the Yankees hitter’s latest performance got us thinking about who has a realistic chance of hitting 500 home runs at all.
Reaching this milestone secured induction into the Hall of Fame, as only 28 players are in the 500-home run club. Miguel Cabrera was the last hitter to reach the vaunted mark in 2021, but only one current hitter has surpassed the 380 home run mark.
So we examined 18 active power hitters who belong in the discussion about the .500 mark and assessed their chances.
PROBABLY
Aaron Judge (32 years old): 301 hours
Bryce Harper (31): 332 hours
Juan Soto (25): 194 hours
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (25): 155 hrs.
We can put the Judge discussion behind us pretty quickly here. He’s so likely to join the .500 club that it’s not impossible to consider him for the .600 club. As for the remaining trio in this group, Harper’s length of experience—sorry, it’s already his sixth season in Philly?!—still makes him younger than we think, so he still has plenty of time to hit the 160+ home runs needed to reach .500. He’s currently hitting 33 home runs per year (162-game average), so he could potentially surpass the mark by the 2030 season. At this point, it would be pretty foolish to bet against Harper.
Speaking of probabilities, Soto’s age and durability are his best assets in the fight for .500. He’s hit six home runs in 200 and doesn’t turn 26 until late October. He also has arguably the best batting discipline of any hitter on this list. It’s notable that the star of a generation may not be in his prime yet. After securing a long-term spot as a free agent, Soto could raise his level and put up monster seasons we haven’t even seen yet.
My prediction that Guerrero Jr. will join the .500 club is probably the sharpest on this list. Like Soto, Guerrero is only 25 years old and has time on his side. Maybe it’s recency bias, but Guerrero is a superstar again and shows us that 2023 was an exception rather than a downward trend. Sure, he’d have to start stringing together consecutive seasons with a .500 batting average, but his pure hitting power should allow him to do so more consistently. It’s not far-fetched to think Soto and Guerrero could head toward .500 together.
IF HEALTH PERMITS
Giancarlo Stanton (34): 422 Career HRs
Mike Trout (33): 378 Career HRs
Shohei Ohtani (30): 210 Career HRs
Those three hitters would move into the “probable” category if it weren’t for their injury history and, in Ohtani’s case, dual responsibility. Ohtani’s endurance will always be questionable as long as he continues to pitch and hit, and he would have to stay in the field and hit an average of 40 home runs for the next seven years to get anywhere close to .500. That’s risky. The same goes for Trout, who many expected to end up in the .500 home run club, but that seems questionable now that he’s been on the injured list more and more often.
Of that trio, Stanton has the best chance of reaching the elusive .500 mark, and despite being one of the oldest players on this list, he’s only 78 home runs short. He still has three years left on his contract to motivate him to get it done, which would require about 25 home runs per season. For a healthy Stanton, that’s a no-brainer — though it’s far from a guarantee for a hitter who frequently suffers hamstring injuries that rob him of valuable hitting opportunities.
50/50
Manny Machado (32): 332 Career HRs
Pete Alonso (29): 219 Career HRs
Rafael Devers (27): 199 Career HRs
Yordan Alvarez (27): 154 Career HRs
Ronald Acuña Jr. (26): 165 Career HRs
Fernando Tatis Jr. (25): 120 Career HRs
Machado is just three months older than Harper, and they are virtually tied on the career home run list. While Harper is more of a pure power hitter and more likely to hit .500 than Machado, the Padres third baseman could be a stealth pick for the club thanks to his consistency year after year. Machado, like others in that category, would have to maintain that consistency for about seven more seasons, and it’s hard to say how durable he’ll be in his mid-30s.
Since Tatís hit 42 home runs in 2022 and is still young enough, he deserves to still be in the conversation for 500 home runs – although he will have to stay on the field for several consecutive seasons to remain a candidate. In Álvarez’s case, consider this: He already has 44 more home runs than Judge when he finished his age-27 season. The Astros hitter has time on his side, averaging 42 home runs per 162 games and remaining one of the best home run hitters in the game since his 2019 debut.
Alonso also arrived in 2019 and is excellent at staying on the field, but his age is working against him. The Mets hitter started later than other .500 hopefuls, and while he still holds the MLB lead for home runs since his debut, he is already nearing his 30th season and a drop-off in performance could be on the horizon. With Devers, he will have crossed the 200-home run mark before his 27th season is over, but he has never hit 40 home runs in a season, and that makes him less of a candidate for the five-hundred mark than some other hitters in that category.
UNLIKELY
Paul Goldschmidt (36): 359 Career HRs
Freddie Freeman (34): 338 Career HRs
Nolan Arenado (33): 338 Career HRs
Kyle Schwarber (31): 274 Career HRs
Matt Olson (30): 251 Career HRs
These are all unlikely odds due to age, potential power declines, durability, and a whole host of other factors that make joining the 500-homer club such a challenge. Goldschmidt, Freeman, and Arenado can all but kiss goodbye any chance, even a slim one, of hitting 150 more homers before their careers are over. Unfortunately, this age-related rate of decline is no joke.
For Schwarber, it depends on how much his power declines in his early/mid 30s – similar to what we’re currently seeing with Arenado and Goldschmidt in their final two years, who appear to be at the tail end of their careers. Olson’s 54-home run season last year was undoubtedly unheard of, but he’s only halfway to .500. With such a long road ahead and already 30 years old, the slugger may have to settle for the 2023 home run championship and breaking the Braves’ single-season record as his power peak.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB reporter for FOX Sports. Previously, she covered the Mets as a reporter for the new York Daily News. Deesha, the daughter of Indian immigrants, grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
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