With the final whistle of the WNBA regular season on Thursday evening, the odds for the WNBA playoffs are set – for now. The New York Liberty (+120) secured first place and are the favorites for this year’s WNBA title. Directly behind them are the rivals Las Vegas Aces (+225) and the Minnesota Lynx (+240), who are seeded second, completing a third group at the top of the odds.

After that, the odds drop significantly: the Connecticut Sun (+800) is followed by the Indiana Fever (+3000), Seattle Storm (+4000), Phoenix Mercury (+15000) and Atlanta Dream (+25000).

The stakes and storylines of this year’s playoffs are exciting, fitting for a league that is exploding in popularity and exciting fans both new and old. 2023 MVP Breanna Stewart and the Liberty are seeking the city’s first title after falling to the Aces in last year’s finals. Meanwhile, reigning Finals MVP A’ja Wilson and the Aces are seeking a third straight title, the first since 2000, when the league was only in its fourth season.

And of course the name is on everyone’s lips: Caitlin Clark will make her WNBA playoff debut with her 6th-seeded team Indiana Fever.

Here is the table for the first round:

• No. 8 Atlanta Dream vs. No. 1 New York Liberty
• No. 7 Phoenix Mercury vs. No. 2 Minnesota Lynx
• No. 6 Indiana Fever vs. No. 3 Connecticut Sun
• No. 5 Seattle Storm vs. No. 4 Las Vegas Aces

Here’s a look at the WNBA playoffs from WNBA writers Sabreena Merchant and Ben Pickman.

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WNBA Championship Odds

The Liberty clinched first place with an 87-71 win over the Washington Mystics on Tuesday, giving New York home-court advantage for the playoffs. The Liberty are 32-8 and have led the league for most of the season.

A post-Olympic rebound by the Lynx (30-10 overall, 13-2 since the Olympic break) prevented the Liberty from making the playoffs before Tuesday. Before the final bracket was set, Lynx odds were +1000 and have since dropped to +800.

The defending champion Aces (27-13) now have the necessary experience and the decisive factor to make it to the playoffs.

So who will win according to our experts?

Tips for the WNBA champion

Pickman: New York City — The Liberty enter the playoffs far from their best performance. However, New York was the league’s best team overall in the regular season, is extremely talented, has home-court advantage in the playoffs and has worked all season to overcome the scars of last year’s WNBA Finals. It’s not easy to flip a switch in the playoffs, but New York knows it has to step up its game and has the talent to do so.

Dealer: Minnesota Lynx — Assuming the Lynx can beat the Sun, they have been a good match for the Liberty and Aces all season.

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WNBA Finals MVP Odds

We have another group of three at the top of the odds for the MVP of the Finals: A’ja Wilson, Napheesa Collier and Breanna Stewart are ranked as the most likely players to make it to the Finals with their team and absolutely impress there.

Wilson is having an absolutely amazing season, the likes of which have never been seen in this league (or officially in the NBA): the most points (1,021), most rebounds (451) and most blocked shots (98) in a single season. It would be the third time in league history that a player has won the Finals MVP award two years in a row. Cynthia Cooper won four times in 1997-2000 and Lisa Leslie in 2001-2002.

Lynx star Collier is putting together a league-defining performance that is only slightly eclipsed by Wilson’s best season. After helping the U.S. win gold at the Olympics, she has averaged 20.7 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.1 assists.

Stewart, the 2023 regular season MVP, was named Finals MVP with the Seattle Storm in 2018 and 2020. Stewart is averaging 20.4 points, 8.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists this season.

MVP selection of the final round

Pickman: Brenna Stewart — She was the best and most consistent player on the best team in the league throughout the regular season. Stewart is a perennial winner, but her loss in last year’s finals was the first major defeat of her career. She will seek revenge for that in the fall. However, if you want more value, check out Jonquel Jones with odds of +1200. Jones, a former league MVP herself, was New York’s most consistent and dominant player during last year’s playoffs and could be again this year.

Dealer: Kayla McBride – This award doesn’t always go to the best player on the winning team (see 2021 and 2022), and it’s easy to imagine McBride being a good shooter on some nights to move Minnesota forward.

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WNBA Playoffs, first round

No. 8 Atlanta Dream vs. No. 1 New York Liberty

• Game 1: 1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday
• Here’s how you can watch: ESPN
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

Pickman’s choice: New York in two rounds – Leaving aside the loss in the final game of the regular season against the Dream, it would be a huge surprise if New York were to lose in the first round.

Selection of the dealer: New York in two parts.

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No. 7 Phoenix Mercury vs. No. 2 Minnesota Lynx

• Game 1: 5:00 p.m. ET, Sunday
• Here’s how you can watch: ESPN
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

Pickman: Minnesota in two games – The Lynx have been the best team in the WNBA since the All-Star break and have lost just one game since play resumed. There’s no reason to believe a struggling Phoenix team will have significant problems.

Dealer: Minnesota in two.

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No. 6 Indiana Fever vs. No. 3 Connecticut Sun

• Game 1: 3:00 p.m. ET, Sunday
• Here’s how you can watch: ABC
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

Pickman: Sun in two. The Sun won the season series against Indiana 3-1, but all three wins came within the first five weeks of the season when Indiana was still finding its feet. The pace at which the series is played will have a big impact on who wins this matchup. Indiana could be the first lower seed to beat a higher seed in the new format, but it’s also hard to bet against the Sun’s playoff experience.

Dealer: Connecticut in two. We’re still waiting for the first first-round upset in this format, and although Indiana was combative after the break and beat Connecticut in the final game, the Sun also have a five-year streak of WNBA semifinal appearances on the line. The bet here is that that streak will continue.

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No. 5 Seattle Storm vs. No. 4 Las Vegas Aces

• Game 1: 10:00 p.m. ET, Sunday
• Here’s how you can watch: ESPN
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

Pickman: This matchup was also loaded with talent, and the Aces have steadily raised their level of play in the postseason. Consistency will make the difference as Las Vegas looks for its third straight win.

Dealer: Las Vegas in two parts.

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More WNBA coverage

How big should ESPN bet on Caitlin Clark in the WNBA playoffs? Our experts discuss

Playoff matches are set, Atlanta Dream takes the last spot: How does the postseason format work?

Awards and All-League Team: A’ja Wilson leads, Caitlin Clark is the best rookie

(Photo by A’ja Wilson: Steph Chambers/Getty Images)